According to all apparences and to NYT, Suleiman is the West's option for gradual transition.
What does that transition mean?
Suleiman is the USA man in Egypt and CIA's top contact since the mid 1990's, according to researchers who looked into the practice of contracting other states to interrogate (ie. toture) terrorism suspects for them in the New Yorker.
The Wikileaks testify of a close and direct relationship between Israel and Suleiman, who helped to set uo negociations betwen Fatah and Hamas and between PA and Israel. Issandar El Amrani writes on The Arabist that "has been instrumental in the rise of Mohammed Dahlan, currently the top PA official in charge of the Gaza-Egypt border and a favorite of Israeli, US and Egyptian intelligence services. Some Palestinian analysts believe Suleiman is the most powerful person in the Occupied Territories and able to dictate policy to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas."
According to al-Jazeera, he was believed to be the man to lead a transition in case of Mubarak's dearth, so he is the scheduled caretaker ofg the regime. Issandar El-Amrani had also considered him to be "a likely successor to Mubarak" in Foreign Policy's "Egypt's Next Strongman" in summer 2009 and predicted that it would have to be done by a coup, a possibility envisaged by Egyptian commentators and the Economist at that time.
Egyptian state media wage a media campaign as to the interpretation of the events. According to them, they are paid for by foreigners and/or islamists. Bikyamisr writes: “A few minutes of Egyptian state television could paralyze you unless you manage to switch to a channel that may block the lies.”
Joshua Stacher in Foreign Affairs explains the containment strategy of the regime that appeats still firmly in power: "This containment strategy has worked. By politically encircling the protesters, the regime prevented the conflict from extending beyond its grasp. With the protesters caught between regime-engineered violence and regime-manufactured safety, the cabinet generals remained firmly in control of the situation."
And he adds about Suleiman: "Suleiman is cut from the same undemocratic cloth as Mubarak. They have collaborated since 1993, and Suleiman shares many of Mubarak's policy preferences and his worldview. He is known for his skill as a negotiator and his disdain for the Muslim Brotherhood. Although the vice president may now seem a stabilizing force for the Egyptian state during a transition period, U.S. officials should consider that he might seek to stay in power long beyond September."
Joshua Stacher in Foreign Affairs explains the containment strategy of the regime that appeats still firmly in power: "This containment strategy has worked. By politically encircling the protesters, the regime prevented the conflict from extending beyond its grasp. With the protesters caught between regime-engineered violence and regime-manufactured safety, the cabinet generals remained firmly in control of the situation."
And he adds about Suleiman: "Suleiman is cut from the same undemocratic cloth as Mubarak. They have collaborated since 1993, and Suleiman shares many of Mubarak's policy preferences and his worldview. He is known for his skill as a negotiator and his disdain for the Muslim Brotherhood. Although the vice president may now seem a stabilizing force for the Egyptian state during a transition period, U.S. officials should consider that he might seek to stay in power long beyond September."
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