16.2.11

How strong and how democratic are the Islamists?

The acts?

Helena Cobban sums up why the MB appears as a valid partner in a possible liberal political system.

The Guardian sums up MBs situation: "Now, though – having been wrong-footed and overtaken by largely non-religious young activists – the brotherhood is seeking to regain its standing as the country's leading opposition movement, without turning either local or western opinion against it."


Telegraph India: Last Sunday, they joined Coptic priests, locking their Crescent with the Cross, at a salient solidarity show in Tahrir Square. Two days later, they pulled out with alacrity from talks with the Mubarak regime, sensing disapproval from the youth uprising and effecting correction. On Wednesday, they tore into both al Qaida’s call for a jihad in Egypt and Iranian leader Ayatollah Al Khamenei’s exhort for renewed Islamic revolution.
“We must ignore and denounce all such calls from al Qaida forums or Islamist forums,” Khaled Hamza, the editor of the Brotherhood mouthpiece, said. “What’s happening here is about the people of Egypt and their aspirations, we believe Egyptians are well capable of guiding their destiny.”
Despite protestations, they will keep off power politics for the time, the Brotherhood will probably be the cornerstone of how Egypt shapes post-Hosni Mubarak; although never tested in government, they are the country’s best networked cadre party.



During the protest, MB were part of the overlapping consensus, recounts a blogger in MY:

ursued by an exceptionally frenzied pro-Mubarak cluster, I scurried down the steps towards the anti-regime demonstrators. I ended up among a group of bearded men who welcomed me with ironic smiles. As an op-ed writer, I had been quite scathingly critical, often sarcastically so, of the Islamist movement, so I felt uneasy surrounded by a large group of its activists. But my fears were unfounded, as this group of Islamists had already internalized the norms of coexistence among the highly diverse crowd inhabiting Tahrir.

In the terminology of political philosopher John Rawls, this is the sort of interaction that, if nurtured, could form the nucleus of an "overlapping consensus" concerning the future of Egypt’s factious society--a consensus that excludes political positions and practices that are completely unacceptable to some segments of society.


Their words?


The prominent MB liberat, Abou el-Foutouh, says in the WaPo:
Our track record of responsibility and moderation is a hallmark of our political credentials, and we will build on it. For instance, it is our position that any future government we may be a part of will respect all treaty obligations made in accordance with the interests of the Egyptian people.

Because we are an Islamic movement and the vast majority of Egypt is Muslim, some will raise the issue of sharia law. While this is not on anyone's immediate agenda, it is instructive to note that the concept of governance based on sharia is not a theocracy for Sunnis since we have no centralized clergy in Islam. For us, Islam is a way of life adhered to by one-fifth of the world's population. Sharia is a means whereby justice is implemented, life is nurtured, the common welfare is provided for, and liberty and property are safeguarded. In any event, any transition to a sharia-based system will have to garner a consensus in Egyptian society



The spokesman Essam al-Errian in NYT:
We aim to achieve reform and rights for all: not just for the Muslim Brotherhood, not just for Muslims, but for all Egyptians. We do not intend to take a dominant role in the forthcoming political transition.

VOA: We're not Iran
A prominent member of Egypt’s officially-banned Muslim Brotherhood’s Guidance Council has “sharply” denied his organization wants an Iranian-style administration, after anti-government demonstrations forced long-time President Hosni Mubarak to step down following 18-days of protests.
Esam Alarian, spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, told VOA members of his organization are only interested in participating in parliamentary elections, not the presidential vote, as speculated by some international media organizations.
“Absolutely wrong; that is (a) false allegation. This is not true. We are calling for a civil state, moderate state, (and) a democratic state, equality, prosperity, justice for all and freedom for all citizens. All are equal. Egypt is not Iran. Egypt can build its own model of democracy according to its culture and Islamic preference
...
“Foreign policy is done by the president and it is supervised and monitored by parliament, and we are not targeting to have a majority in parliament. So, the Egyptian people can decide, not (the) Muslim Brotherhood. The new Egypt is not by (the) Muslim Brotherhood alone; it will be made by all Egyptians, Muslims, and Christians, liberals, socialists, nationalists and Islamists.”

USA Today (yes:) has an unclear statement from an unclear person from MB Abdel Fattah or Aboul Futouh?):
"The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum, Abdel Fattah said. And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, "we will support Hamas like others will," he said, referring to the U.S.-designated terror group that rules Gaza. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did."
"Wael Nawara of Al Ghad believes the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today. Mohamed Zarea, a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood, believes they would get 50%.!

The estimations?

The noted Egyptian writer, feminist and activist Nawal al-Sa'adawí - who has had difficult experiences with extremoists, about the Brotherhood:

I am not at all worried about the Brotherhood. There is a lot of exaggeration about this organization, and it is used to frighten women here and Western women, too. The Muslim Brotherhood is a minority. They do not lead the revolution, and many of the men involved in the organization want a secular constitution. Men and women protested in the square and died in the square together.

No, it was not the Muslim Brotherhood who hurt women, it was Mubarak's people who entered the square and killed. All of this talk about the Brotherhood is an attempt to use religion to divide the people. Do not worry; the Muslim Brotherhood will never rule Egyp

t.



The Egyptian sociologist Saad Eddin Ibrahime estimates in an interview in Resetdoc that
"if there were free and fair elections in Egypt, Mubarak’s party would get 40% of the votes, the Muslim Brotherhood a 20%. Then, another 20% would be won by al-Wafd party, a party established in 1919 but then outlawed under the Nasser era. It then re-emerged some 20 years ago. It receives a significant grassroots support in the countryside and from middle class. Mubarak’s party would control the biggest block but the balance would be given by smaller parties."
"Islamists in the best of circumstances could get between 20 and 30% of the votes in any elected government. No more than that. These results come from research and surveys we have been doing in our center, the Ibn Khaldun Center for Democratic Studies, over the last 30 years. However, in our part of the world, dictators use Islamists as a bogeyman in order to frighten not only the West but also the local middle class.


Wael Ghonim, the initiator of the January 25th protests, estimates in a CNN interview the participation of Muslim Brotherhood as rather low:
"Muslim Brotherhood was not involved at all in the organization of this. Muslim brotherhood announced that they were not going to participate initially. And if the young guys want to join they’re not going to tell them “no.”
I don’t agree with (the) Muslim brotherhood movement. I don’t agree with their ideologies. But whoever these are, they are Egyptians. These are good Egyptians. They participated…would say 10 to 15 percent of the people are there. They are just like Egyptians, they are honest and nice. They are not as bad and evil as they are trying to tell us."

The noted Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan says in a Resetdoc interview that
"There is an internal struggle between generations and between trends, and I think that there is no monolithic reality of Islamism today."
and that especially the Tunisian Islamists a new, open-minded generation leads:
"Rachid Ghannouchi comes from the Muslim Brotherhood, but in the sixties and seventies he was the only one in this group to say that democracy is the right thing, while the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was saying no. He did not have a problem with democracy. He had a far more liberal and advanced view, even in what he wrote about women, compared to other members of the Muslim Brotherhood, even from within this group! So there was a debate. In Tunisia you also have different trends arising from those who are much more Salafite, literalists."

Christian Science Monitor wrote in 2009 about

"a generational fault line between younger reformists, who seek a more active political role for the banned organization, and older conservatives whose influence is rising…."
"The Brotherhood, alongside other groups, participated in street protests calling for political reform and an end to the Mubarak regime. Mahmoud was encouraged to form alliances with outside activists and to give his opinion freely.
But subsequent government repression led the Brotherhood to “tak[e] a step backwards,” says Mahmoud, who explains that “whenever there is freedom, reformist ideas [within the group] will predominate; when there’s tyranny, conservative ones will.
"…government repression is the glue holding the Brotherhood together. If the Egyptian political system opened up, “the internal differences would become apparent in a way that might lead to the existence of more than one Brotherhood.”"



The noted (rather leftist) Arab political scientist Gilbert Achcar says in an interview:
"The Muslim Brotherhood's goal is to secure a democratic change that would grant them the possibility to take part in free elections, both parliamentary and presidential. The model they aspire to reproduce in Egypt is that of Turkey, where the democratisation process was controlled by the military with the army remaining a key pillar of the political system. This process nonetheless created a space which allowed the AKP, an Islamic conservative party, to win elections. They are not bent on overthrowing the state, hence their courting of the military and their care to avoid any gesture that could antagonize the army. They adhere to a strategy of gradual conquest of power: they are gradualists, not radicals."


Juan Cole, noted historian and publicist, in Truthdig:

The Brotherhood is a decentralized organization even in Egypt. It is not organized internationally. The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, e.g., is essentially a different organization from its Egyptian counterpart. Hamas has its distant origins in Brotherhood proselytizing in the 1930s, but it takes no orders from Cairo. Other political groups with a Muslim Brotherhood genealogy include the Iraqi Islamic Party, which cooperated with George W. Bush’s invasion of and administration of Iraq.

The Muslim Brotherhood is a fundamentalist organization. It is relatively hostile to women’s rights, and its vision of moving Egypt even further from civil, secular law to a conservative and literalist interpretation of medieval Muslim traditions is reactionary. Its literature is tainted with the worst sort of anti-Semitism. But decades of repression have not destroyed the movement, and there is no reason to believe that more repression would be more effective now.

There is another, proven, way to deal with this problem. The political success stories of the past decade in the Muslim world with regard to democratization are Turkey andIndonesia. In both countries the fundamentalist religious tendency has been liberalized and domesticated by its participation in the parliamentary process. Mubarak’s regime did not work. Democracy in Turkey and Indonesia has. Let us go with a winner for once.


The programme?


Mother Jones quotes:
Nathan Brown, a political science professor at George Washington University and an expert on political Islam, is optimistic that the Brotherhood has evolved from its fundamentalist roots: "Their agenda is to make Egypt better," he told Salon recently. "And their conception of what's good and bad has a religious basis. So that means increasing religious observance, religious knowledge. It also means probably drawing more heavily on the Islamic legal heritage for Egypt's laws. They don't want to necessarily completely convert Egypt into a traditional Islamic legal system. But if the Parliament's going to pass a law, they want it to be consistent with Islamic law."

al-MY quotes the spiritual authority for many MB's:
Preserving the people's freedom is more important than setting up a system of Sharia (Islamic law), even though freedom remains part and parcel of Sharia, said Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi on Friday evening in an interview with Al Jazeera television network. Al-Qaradawi, who is an influential Islamic thinker and president of the International Union for Muslim Scholars, is closely tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group.

Relation with other islamists:

NYPost:
Islamic Jihad, which released an ominous statement threatening "attacks on sensitive targets" to avenge "the martyrs." The statement, issued by Tharwat Salah Shehata, an Islamic Jihad leader in exile in Tehran, reads: "We, in the Islamic Jihad, in solidarity with our Muslim brothers in Egypt, humbly pray to Allah Almighty to accept their dead as martyrs and heal their wounds. We wish we could be in the forefront of their ranks and share in their honor."
Hours after Islamic Jihad issued its statement, on Friday Iran's "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei appeared at a mass prayer rally to describe the Egyptian uprising, as well as Tunisia's "Jasmine Revolution," as "part of our global Islamic movement."
Khamenei insisted that this Islamist revolution targeted America and that regime change in Cairo would be "a bitter defeat for Washington."
This was the first time in years that Khamenei appeared publicly at the weekly prayers. His presence was part of an attempt by the Khomeinist leadership to claim that Islam, not democracy, was the Middle East's rising trend. Dozens of Islamic Jihad exiles in Iran were present at the ceremony, cheering Khamenei with cries of "There is No God but Allah!"
The Egyptian Brotherhood's supreme guide promptly rejected Khamenei's claim.
"This is not an Islamic uprising," Badi'e said in a statement. "This is a popular uprising that belongs to all Egyptians."



Past politics:


Helena Cobban interviewed Abul Futuh, the MS's liberal leader, back in 2007:
"We'd like to have cooperation with the regime, and with all the forces in society. The system here should be made more democratic. The regime should take true steps towards democracy. We understand they can't do it overnight, but they should do it with a clear timetable. They should take true steps against corruption. And work for the true inclusion of all the peaceful political trends here-- the Muslim Brotherhood, the Communists, everyone."
On Israel:
"The Jewish people can go or stay, but whatever they do the Palestinians should win their rights. You could have an outcome with one state there-- a secular, democratic state-- or two states. But I think one state would be better, because if you have two states, then they would fight. It would be better to be one state-- like South Africa."


WSJ about the programme draft:
Later in 2007, the Brotherhood attempted to clarify its vision by distributing a draft program for a political party it aims to establish. The document stated that a woman or a Christian cannot become Egypt's president, and called for the creation of a special council of Islamic clerics to vet legislation.
The draft appalled the government media, the secular opposition and even some relatively liberal members of the Egyptian Brotherhood itself.
Essam el Erian, the head of the Brotherhood's political bureau, says he has worked on a draft party program for years. The version that ended up being distributed by the group, he quipped, is so wrong that it probably "has been exposed to a virus."
Stung by the criticism, the Brotherhood's senior leadership eventually said the document it had released was not final. The group, whose 80-year-old supreme chief, Mahdi Akef, plans to retire in January 2010, froze the program's drafting.

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