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Middle East Change Observer No. 9

Syria: regime’s winning offensive against unrest? The military crackdown on Syria’s escalated on the weekend, affirming the government’s intent to end the uprising by force. Tanks were sent to major cities Hama, Homs and Baniyas. Baniyas, Jabla and part of Homs are besieged with communications severed. Shelling and fighting was reported from Homs, and heavy gunfire from a number of southern villages. At least 10,000 protesters have been detained according to the NYT and dozens killed. Military presence was reduced in Deraa and water and electricity restored in Baniays. Syrian television broadcasts images of soldiers’ burials. Rami Makhlouf, Bashar Asad’s cousin and major regime-linked entrepreneur declared to NYT that the regime will fight till the end and threatened with consequences for regional stability if it falls.

The government appears to feel more secure. The urban opposition is incapable to mount coordinated protests and according to Al-Jazeera, the Kurds decided not to weigh in with numbers. Reports of limited defections continue to circulate, yet the government’s pillars seem firm. The regime faces a landscape indelibly changed by the seven weeks of unrest undermining the longstanding promise by the government of economic modernization, if not political reform.

Libya: diplomatic support for the rebel organisation

The rebels pushed Qadhafi forces out of Misrata, control the airport there and fight in a more coordinated way around Ajdabiya. NATO announced "the start of a second phase of its military operation aimed at command centre.

The ruling National Transitional Council in Benghazi was deadlocked in its attempts to agree on an executive committee as two high-profile members, Mustafa Jalil and Ghoga, Abdelhafiz, clashed over weapons imports. A 15-strong committee was supposed to be agreed a week ago. Only 8 names of the committee were agreed on May 8, with Jalil’s ally, Mahmoud Jabril, confirmed as foreign minister. The rebels still have two generals, each insisting that they are the commander: Adbul Fattah Younes, Qadhafi’s former interior minister, backed by the TNC, and Khalifa Heftar, an army general who defected to the US in the 80s.

Representatives from 25 Libyan local councils and tribes have met for the first time in Abu Dhabi, expressing support for the uprising against Gaddafi. A representative from Sirte, Qadhafi's hometown, was among the more than 20 delegates in attendance. The Contact Group on Libya met on May 5 in Rome, calling for an international recognition of the National Transitional Council and for providing the rebels with advanced weaponry and funds.

Egypt: sectarian clashes in Cairo

Sectarian violence - 12 died and hundreds were injured in clashes between Copts and Muslims in Cairo’s neighbourhood of Imbaba on May 8, hours after a TV interview with Kamilia Shehata, a Coptic woman who some Muslims allege converted to Islam and held against her will by the Church. Later Christians protested outside the state television building, accusing the military government of indifference. A police report and Christians in the neighbourhood placed the blame for the violence on the Salafis. According to local report, battle lines that had more to do with tribal allegiances than any religious or political ideas.

Opposition - Thousands of activists from groups and political parties that supported the Egyptian revolution gathered in Cairo on May 7 for a conference aimed at coordinating efforts to protect the gains of the revolution and ensure a transition to full democracy. The conference was organized by the National Council, a body created by noted architect and visionary activist Mamdouh Hamza. Among the major names in attendence were presidential candidates Ayman Nour, Hisham al-Bastawisy, and Hamdeen Sabahy, although they did not address the conference. Mohamed Al-Baradai did not attend. The Muslim Brotherhood did not officially participate but members attended unofficially.

The conference, titled the “First Conference of Egypt: Towards Protecting the Revolution”, brought all revolutionary groups together and generated proposals on key issues of the transition. Among others, National Council demands that a new constitution should be written and put in place before the coming parliamentary elections.

Justice - On May 11, a court convicted the country’s former tourism minister Zuheir Garana of corruption and sentenced him to five years in prison. Egypt’s prosecutor general ordered that the detention of ousted President Hosni Mubarak be extended for another 15 days pending investigation of accusations of illegally amassing wealth and of his role in the use of live ammunition against pro-democracy protesters. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) announced military trials for 190 people arrested in the violence.

Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen: protests

In Morocco, thousands have participated in an anti-violence march after the terrorist attacks in Marrakech, and demanded political reforms. Authorities have arrested three suspects and said the leader had loyalties to al-Qaida. There’s been no claim of responsibility.

Tunisia has reinstated a night-time curfew after 4 days of unrest and clashes between protesters and police, triggered by a warning by a former minister that Ben Ali loyalists might seize power in a coup if Islamists won the July election

In Yemen, Yemen’s ruling General People’s Congress offered a new timetable for President Saleh to relinquish power. The president threatened with more force against protest.

The king of Bahrain announced that the state of emergency he imposed in mid-March will end June 1.

Expected events

Several international activist groups called for a “march of millions” into Gaza on 15 May, the 63rd anniversary of the establishment of the state of Israel. Egyptian pro-democracy, pro-Palestinian and sport groups - are among the organizers. The call marks the tendency of international politics becoming a matter of activist street militancy.

Middle East Change Observer No. 8/5-2011

Syria: protest spread despite crackdown

Despite the invasion of the cities of Deraa and Douma and mass arrests, large protests came out on April 30. This time, several political, ethnic and religious groups who previously kept their distance from the uprising, joined the protests. Among theme were the Muslim Brotherhood and the Druze minority, the Kurds in Qamishli and other minorities. A petition signed by dozens of writers and academics from all ethnic groups showed that the uprising is above sectarian considerations. There were also sizable protests in the crucial metropolitan centres of Aleppo and Damascus that had remained relatively calm before.
Security forces are said to have killed 62 persons bringing the total deaths at estimated 600. Mass killing by the 4th brigade went on in Alawi area near the Lebanese border.
More news came out about mutiny or a split in the 5th Army Division about killing civilians. Over 300 members of the Baath Party have resigned and publicly condemned the crackdown. Protest groups have vowed to hold daily noon protests until the "sieges" of Dera'a and of Douma. In a Kurdish village near Qamishli some 2,000 people attended the funeral of a conscript believed to be killed for refusing to take part in the repression.
The Syrian authorities have offered an amnesty to opposition groups who have defied the regime, saying the "vandals and terrorists" have 15 days to hand themselves in or face the consequences.
The USA imposed sanctions on several key members of the Assad regime, among them on Assad brother, Maher, commander of the Syrian Army's 4th Armored Division

Libya: Qaddafi targeted as he loses ground

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi survived a NATO air-strike on April 30 that killed his youngest son Saif al-Arab and three of his grandchildren in command-and-control centre near Bab al-Azizia. The NATO coalition denied assassination attempts but conceded a change of tactics: an increased targeting the decision centres of Libyan regime in Tripoli and Sirte after it has destroyed most accessible targets.
Qaddafi had tried to mine Misrata harbor, and had threatened with a tribes attack against the city, nothing of which materialised. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Col Muammar Qaddafi to step down.

Egypt: shift in foreign policy

Palestine - In a surprise announcement following secret talks in Cairo, the Fatah party and its Islamist rival Hamas said they had put a four-year rift behind them. The two parties pledged to form an interim unity government with elections in both the West Bank and Gaza in December. After the reconciliation, the Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil al-Araby has urged the United States to support the declaration of an independent Palestinian state.
The Foreign Ministry Egypt announced it intends to open its border with Gaza. The gas pipeline towards Jordan and Israel exploded near Arish on Apríl 28.
Islamists - In its first meeting since 1995, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Shura Council on April 30 announced the leaders of its would-be political party and pledged not to run for more than half the parliamentary seats in Egypt’s upcoming parliamentary elections. This would mean an increase in the number of candidates the party will field it the September parliamentary elections up from an announced 30 % of the constituencies, in a sign of the increasing confidence of Egypt's Islamists. The contradiction with earlier statements makes MB appear little credible. The group affirmed that it would not support any brother who decides to compete for the state’s highest executive office, in reference to prominent reformist Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, who had announced he might run for president independently of the new MB party.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s legislative body appointed Mohammed Morsy as president of the Freedom and Justice Party, Essam al-Erian as vice president and Saad al-Katatny as secretary general. As a sign of the independence of their political party from the mother organization - a plea constantly reiterated by observers and the group’s reformist voices - the Shura Council required the three leaders to relinquish their positions in the Guidance Bureau. The appointment was criticised by young Brotherhood members.
Protests - Three recently-appointed governors who were rejected by the public, causing unrest in the respective governorates.
Egypts’ workers chanted against Mubarak during the Labor Day celebrations on 1 May. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf did not attend the celebrations even though he was invited. In a dramatic end, a group of thugs overran the stage and put an end to the party.
Justice - The prosecution received a report from a fact-finding commission charged with investigating the events of the 25 January revolution, stating that prison breaks were planned and that police used ammunition and tear gas to create chaos.
Budget - Before the unrest, Egypt had predicted a deficit of 7.9 percent of GDP for fiscal 2010/11, but later revised that upwards to 9.4 percent. The IMF projects a plunge in growth to 1.0 percent this year, after a 5.1 percent expansion in 2010. Planning and International Cooperation Minister Faiza Abu el-Naga announced on Monday a development plan worth LE230 billion to kick-start the economy after Mubarak's ouster.

Yemen: failure of the transition deal

President Ali Abdullah Saleh did not attend the signing of the Gulf states negotiated deal, bringing down the only serious attempt to end the crisis. Large duelling demonstrations were held in the capital of Sanaa. Tens of thousands of protesters marched up demanding the ouster of President Saleh.

Morocco: a first terrorist attack

On April 28 a bomb in a crowded tourist cafe in Marrakesh killed 16 people, in a first Al-Qaeda style attack since the Arab revolutions began.
On May 1, thousands of people, including trade union members, marched in Morocco’s cities demanding a faster transition toward democracy and decrying terrorism

Juan Cole: An Arab Spring for Women

An Arab Spring for Women: The Missing Story From the Middle East

Juan and Shahin Cole on Huffington Post

The “Arab Spring” has received copious attention in the American media, but one of its crucial elements has been largely overlooked: the striking role of women in the protests sweeping the Arab world. Despite inadequate media coverage of their role, women have been and often remain at the forefront of those protests.

As a start, women had a significant place in the Tunisian demonstrations that kicked off the Arab Spring, often marching up Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis, the capital, with their husbands and children in tow. Then, the spark for the Egyptian uprising that forced President Hosni Mubarak out of office was a January 25th demonstration in Cairo’s Tahrir Square called by an impassioned young woman via a video posted on Facebook. In Yemen, columns of veiled women have come out in Sanaa and Taiz to force that country’s autocrat from office, while in Syria, facing armed secret police, women have blockaded roads to demonstrate for the release of their husbands and sons from prison.

But with such bold gestures go fears. 

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All you need to know about the REVOLT IN EGYPT Interview with Hazem Kandil

HAZEM KANDIL - REVOLT IN EGYPT - Interview

After a reign of thirty years, Mubarak was overthrown by a popular movement in less than three weeks. How did the uprising originate?

Over the last few years, a rebellion had been brewing under the surface. There was a general sense that the status quo could not be sustained. Movies, novels, songs were permeated by the theme of revolt: it was everywhere in people’s imagination. Two developments were responsible for making ordinary, apolitical Egyptians feel they could no longer carry on with their normal lives. The first was the dissolution of the social contract governing state–society relations since Nasser’s coup in the fifties. The contract involved a div0it exchange: the regime offered free education, employment in an expanding public sector, affordable healthcare, cheap housing and other forms of social protection, in return for obedience. You could have—or at any rate hope for—these benefits, so long as domestic or foreign policies were not questioned and political power was not contested. In other words, people understood that they were trading their political rights for social welfare. From the eighties onwards, this contract was eroded, but it was not until the new millennium that it was fully abrogated... continue reading.

New Left Review 68, March-April 2011

Middle East Change Observer No. 7/4-2011

Syria: a brutal crackdown

The Syrian regime has dramatically intensified its crackdown against the protesters in an attempt to quell the revolution by a stick and carrot strategy.

Concessions - First, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad abolished the emergency law and has dismissed two unpopular governors against whom there had been protests. He announced that there was no longer any reason for anyone to demonstrate, implying that further demonstrations would be dealt with harshly.

The newly-appointed cabinet held its first full-scale meeting and took a series of steps towards "reform". These included approving a draft decree replacing the emergency law it with a law "regulating the right to peaceful demonstration", "expediting" planned laws for political parties and the media, and a programme to create 10,000 new government jobs every year for young people. The lifting of emergency will make little or no difference: Many of the charges on which opponents of the regime are routinely imprisoned exist either within the Penal Code itself or as special laws or articles in the constitution.

Protests - Tens of thousands of Syrians came out again on “Great Friday” in numerous cities. Over 120 people were killed last weekend in April alone, bringing the number of deaths to 350. At least 3,000 troops, backed by tanks and heavy weapons entered Deraa, in the early hours of April 25. The army used tanks and indiscriminate shooting and proceeded to arrest hundreds around the country. There were numerous reports a mutiny in the units affiliated with 5th Division.

Information war - the Syrian government blames the attacks on Salafists groups, while opposition and media present the protests as civil uprising similar to those in other Arab countries. Also, opposition, Assad supporters and independents disagree about occurrence and magnitude of protests and accuse each other of propaganda.

Libya: little progress on the front, new NATO tactics

The front remained largely unchanged. After a period of indecision, the NATO coalition has begun striking Qaddafi forces forcefully again and started employing drones. It attacked Qaddafi’s headquarters in Tripoli. Despite the pledges of the Qaddafi government that its troops would cease attacking Misrata, they heavily bombarded the city both on Saturday and Sunday, killing at least 32 persons and wounding dozens. Two Western journalists were killed along with dozens of Libyans. After retreating into the port of Misrata last week, the rebels received humanitarian aid from the sea and had been able to push Qaddafi forced back and take much of the downtown area, including the central hospital, the last major bastion of the Qaddafi brigades. According to AFP that morale is extremely low among the Qaddafi brigades there, and that they might have surrendered some time ago if they had not been afraid of persecution by the Free Libya forces.

On Monday, the youth of the Duraibi quarter of Tripoli announced releasing flocks of doves to signal their support of the Free Libya government. Huge petrol queues have sprung up again in Tripoli and surrounding towns.

Yemen: closer to a solution

President Saleh agreed on April 24 to a formula by the Gulf Co-operation Council for him to transfer power to his vice-president within 30 days in exchange for immunity from prosecution. The nearly daily protests continue to demand he leave immediately.

Egypt: further changes in administration

Gas deal - The public prosecutor indicted six people in relation with a gas deal with Israel. Former Minister of Petroleum Sameh Fahmi and five others have been indicted for harming national interests, wasting public money and corruption. Since 2008 the deal has been a subject of public outcry and of a recent public campaign for the revision of the gas which was concluded in 2005. It fixed for 15 years a maximum price on gas. Global gas prices in the meantime went up. Yet, since the currently-ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces declared in its fifth communiqué that it maintains all international deals and treatise, the gas deal cannot simply be changed.

Protests - Egyptians protested on Wednesday 20 April against Mustafa al-Fiqi as Egypt's candidate at the Arab League.

The recently appointed governor of Qena has been suspended after a weak of violent mass protests and highway blockades in Qena. The protesters have said they do not object to Major Shehata Mikhail because of his Christian religion and instead accuse him of involvement in killing pro-democracy protesters during the 25 January revolution.

Progress: Tunisia, Jordan, Oman and Morocoo

Tunisia - PM Caid Essebsi announced that Officials of Tunisia's former ruling party in the past 10 years will be barred from standing in elections on July 24. Caid Essebsi said that to get round this obstacle, interim President Foued Mebazaa would draw up a "list by name" of people who directly collaborated with Ben Ali, particularly in his presidential cabinet and among his close advisors. Caid Essebsi also confirmed that the transitional government supported mandatory parity for men and women on the electoral lists for the vote in July.

Jordan - King Abdallah II has created a commission to suggest amendments to the Jordanian constitution.

Oman - Sultan Qaboos has acquiesced in protesters’ demands that he release nearly 300 dissidents arrested since the protests began.

Morocco  - protests continue to demand constitutional changes in third major protest since February. The government has given public sector workers a substantial pay raise ahead of the protests.

Expected events

Yemeni opposition leaders and dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh will meet in Riyadh on Monday to sign an agreement on a peaceful transfer of power. Egypt awaits advance in the interrogation of ex-President Mubarak. Syria is likely to step up the repression and possibly witness first desertions from the army.

Middle East Change Observer No. 6/4-2011

Significant headway in Egypt

Progress - Egypt moved towards a multi-party democracy by the High Court’s decision to ban the former ruling party NDP (1978-2011) and nationalise its assets on the ground of its monopolising the power. It termed recent changes a “glorious revolution” and acceded so to another substantial demand of the protesters, similarly to Tunisia’s month old ban of Ben Ali’s Rally for Constitutional Democracy.

Justice - In a similarly significant move ex-president Mubarak and his two sons were taken into custody: father was flown from Sharm el Sheikh into a military hospital, his two sons joined ex-PM Ahmed Nazif, ex-minister of interior Adli and the steel-tycoon Ahmed Ezz in the notorious Tora prison. The Mubaraks are to be detained for 15 days for questioning by the so called Illicit Gains Authority.

These decisions were taken after renewed massive protests on Tahrir square. Since two weeks protestors target the army’s strong hand tactics and army’s head, the Marshall Tantawi himself.

Gas - PM Essam Sharraf has directed the review of all gas contracts Egypt agreed to with all countries, including Jordan and Israel, in order to achieve higher returns for Egypt. Egypt supplies an estimated 40% of Israel's gas in what was under a controversial deal.

Stalemate inside Libya, moves outside

Libya fighting remains stalled around the cities of Ajdabiya and Misrata, still held by the rebels. Qaddafi was accused of using cluster bombs in Misrata.

In the Qatari capital, Doha Britain's foreign secretary William Hague and the Qatari prime PM Hamed bin Jassem chaired a first session of the international Libya "contact group" to explore ways ahead in the face of military impasse between the Gaddafi regime and the rebels. The Libya Contact Group for the first time forcefully called for Qaddafi to step down and recognized instead the Transitional National Council in Benghazi as legitimate. They affirmed that Qaddafi has lost the legitimacy to rule. As a result, Benghazi will likely be provided with cash, possibly including funds belonging to the Libyan government, frozen in NATO countries.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister David Cameron, and US President Barack Obama published a joint op-ed in three newspapers on April 15. They make it clear that the UN allies will not permit Muammar Qaddafi to remain in power.

Harsh repression and mild concessions in Syria

Protests - On April 15, in the biggest day of protests in Syria so far, tens of thousands of Syrians demonstrated against the Baathist regime in the Douma suburb of Damascus, but were prevented the police from reaching the center of the capital. In the southern city of Deraa, which has been the epicenter of Syrian unrest, 20,000 are said to have rallied against the government. Crowds also chanted in the streets against the government in Latakia, Homs, Banias and Jassan, as well as in the Kurdish areas. There were few casualties on Friday in Syria, which AP suggests may have reflected a regime strategy to minimize deaths of protesters.

Violence - Syrian soldiers have been shot by security forces after refusing to fire on protesters. Witnesses told al-Jazeera and the BBC that some soldiers had refused to shoot after the army moved into Banias in the wake of intense protests on Friday.

Assad’s active reaction to protests - Bashar Assad held a second televised speech on April 17 since the beginning to the protests. It was less arrogant, similarly adamant to stay out the crisis without substantial reforms, yet acknowledging the deep gap between the people and the government.

The speech followed a series of concessions clearly intended to placate two distinct and politically crucial groups – the Islamists and the Kurds. Pres. Assad fulfilled a decades-old demand by granting citizenship to thousands among Syria's long-ostracized Kurds, fired local officials, released some detainees, formed a new government and allowed Islamists to form a party and start a television station. He further promised to lift the nation's decades-old emergency law this week, even as he announced a series of strong counter-terrorism laws. Pr. Assad has also met with religious and tribal leaders from Daraa and Banyas and met with relatives of those killed in the Damascus suburb of Douma.

Developments in Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain

Financial Support for Tunisia - The World Bank is working with Tunisia on $500 million in budget support, which could leverage an additional $700 million from other donors. The European Union itself will provide up to €140 million in extra aid to Tunisia over the next three years, José Manuel Barroso, announced on April 12.  Barroso made clear that Tunisia's interim government has to clamp down on illegal migration. More than 20,000 Tunisian migrants have arrived in Italy since the ousting three months ago of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

Stalemate in Yemen - Hundreds of thousands of Yemenis demonstrated throughout the country, in Sanaa, Taizz, Hudeida and Ibb while the pro-government protest was smaller and only comes out for a short period every Friday afternoon. Efforts to negotiate a transfer of power in Yemen have floundered on the question of the sort of president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Arab Gulf states, who have been trying to mediate, want him to be granted immunity from prosecution in return for leaving office but the Yemeni opposition refused to let him go without a trial.

Thousands of Yemeni women demonstrated against Saleh on Saturday in Sanaa and Taizz, saying “We will not be silent!” They were protesting his complaint on Friday that there was gender mixing in the public rallies, which he said was contrary to Muslim culture, and his call for them to remain home.

The Bahrain government has backed off its plan to dissolve the Wifaq Party and one other. Wifaq is the largest Shiite party in the small Arab sheikhdom, representing the some 60% of the citizen population that is Shiite.

Protests – In Iraq, demonstrators demanded the resignation of Prime Minister al-Maliki in Baghdad. In Mosul protests demanded the immediate withdrawal of US troops and the release of political prisoners. In Amman, Jordan, 1000 or so protesters gathered downtown Friday to demand the resignation of the prime minister and greater democratic freedoms. In Saudi Arabia about a thousand protesters rallied in the eastern Saudi city of Qatif against crackdown on Shiites in Bahrain which Saudia Arabia helped.

                 

Quote

“Our duty and our mandate under UN Security Council Resolution 1973 is to protect civilians, and we are doing that. It is not to remove Gaddafi by force. But it is impossible to imagine a future for Libya with Gaddafi in power... It is unthinkable that someone who has tried to massacre his own people can play a part in their future government.” PM Cameron, pres. Obama and pres. Sarkozy and in a common op-ed

Middle East Change Observer No. 5

Libya war
While fighting between the rebels and Qadhafi militias appeared as a stalemate around the towns of Brega and Ajdabiya, two peace plan initiatives were on the way. The Turkish PM worked out a plan with Libyan minister of foreign affairs and sent the proposal over to Tripolis. The African Union (AU) peace mission including three presidents was invited to Tripoli by colonel Qadhafi, worked out a plan that cl Qadhafi accepted and arrived to Benghazi later to receive a hostile welcome from protestors. The difference between the two plans is that the UA does not require the regime forces to retire from besieged cities as a condition of ceasefire. It is therefore likely to be rejected by Benghazi.

Syria

Concessions - Pres. Assad sought to quell unrest by offering Syrian nationality to the estimated 200,000 Kurds formerly classified by the government as stateless persons and by announcing the closing down of Syria’s first and only casino, which had enraged Islamists. Further, schoolteachers who had been dismissed last year for wearing the niqab, a type of face veil, would be allowed back to work. This decision appeared to be the most immediately significant result of a meeting Tuesday between Mr. Assad and a popular Islamist leader, Said Ramadan al-Bouti. Acc. to Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian writer, about 1,200 women would be affected by the niqab decision. Other concessions offered at the meeting, Mr. Abdel Nour said, included permission to create an Islamist satellite channel and to form an Islamist political party. But the president has failed to put an end to emergency law or release political prisoners – two of the protesters' demands.

Repression - More than 10,000 protesters took to the streets of several cities, including the capital, Damascus, on Friday, April 8. Three dozens were killed in Dera’a, Douma. The protests were followed by more protests and clashes during the funerals. The government has sealed of the port city of Banias where four were killed. There have been reports of violent pro-regime militias, the so called shabiha. Syrian security forces have reportedly used live bullets against anti-government protesters at Damascus University's science faculty.

Dissent - An editor at the state-run newspaper Tishreen, Samira Masalma, was sacked after she criticised the shootings on al-Jazeera television.

Protests

In Yemen, more than 100,000 people converged on the capital, Sanaa, for rival demonstrations on Friday. Scores were killed in Taizz. The president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, appeared accept the offer from the regional Gulf Cooperation Council to mediate the terms of his departure but it has been rejected by the opposition because it would give him immunity from prosecution.

A man set himself on fire in Amman, Jordan, emulating the action of the Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi, whose self-immolation helped spark the Arab Spring.

In Iraq, masses converged from the south and from Diyala province in the east on Baghdad, heeding the call of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr for a million-person demonstration to mark what the Sadrists and many Sunnis see as 8 years of American military occupation

Egypt
Protests – On April 8 some 100,000 protesters gathered in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo during “Friday of purification”, demanding that deposed president Hosni Mubarak be put on trial for corruption. A group of some 4,000 protesters still filled the square late Friday night, and the protesters were joined by a group of around 15-20 army Officers in defiance of an official order banning army personnel from participating. The move increased tensions in the square. On the morning of April 9 the army violently cleared the square with tear gas and fierce gun firing, mostly into the air. At least one person was killed.

Concession – The army’s policy of repression-concession cycle continues. On April 10, the prosecutors summoned former President Hosni Mubarak and his sons for questioning and arrested former Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. Mubarak and his family are accused of abusing their political positions to ‎accumulate “illegal personal profits, illegal amassing of wealth, and the seizure of public funds.”

Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf has ordered the Ministerial Security Committee to release all civilians detained in Tahrir Square on Friday and Saturday .

Army - An Egyptian military court on Monday jailed a blogger for three years for criticising the armed forces. Maikel Nabil Sanad, a 25-year-old activist wrote that “the army supplied police forces with extra ammunition to shoot protesters on Jan. 28,” adding that “the military later put protesters in Tahrir Square under siege and attempted to forcibly evacuate the demonstrations more than once.”

Egypt has nominated a top member of the former ruling party to be the new head of the Arab League Mustafa el-Fiqqi.

Islamists - Members of the Ansar al-Sunna Association - known in Egypt for its Salafi orientation - declared on Tuesday they will join the upcoming parliamentary race. Salafis recently gained national headlines following the destruction of several Sufi shrines near Egyptian northern cities including Alexandria, a Salafist stronghold, and Qalubiya. The Muslim Brotherhood condemned the attacks as any act endangering the unity of Muslims and destroying public propriety would contradict the spirit of the January 25 revolution.

Expected events

In Libya the two cease-fire plans are going to be discussed while the military situation appears as a stalemate. Cl Qadhafi is likely to accept the UA plan, while the transitional council on Benghazi might consider the Turkish one. The mediation of GCC will continue in Yemen. Syria entered a spiral of repression that is likely to deepen.

Middle East Change Observer No. 4

Violent stalemate: Libya, Syria

In central Libya Qadhafi’s forces retook the oil port Ras Lanuf and fighting rages around Brega. The advances by Qadhafi’s forces were facilitated by bad weather that grounded NATO-led coalition forces. The rebels attempt to bring more professionalism into their fighting. According to al-Jazeera. the rebels receive training and equipment from Egypt. Meanwhile, the Libyan foreign minister Musa Kusa defected to the UK, further splitting Qadhafi’s elite. 

Libyan opposition seeks a political solution to the stalemate on ground. It set terms of ceasefire, Qadhafi rejected them. The opposiution stroke a deal on oil export with Qatar.

Syria organised mass support demonstrations in larger cities and the government resigned. After president Asad’s defiant speech on March 30, protests continued on Friday, although in smaller numbers and under heavy police presence. Dozens were arrested and dozens were killed by police and plain cloth militia in Dera’a, Homs and in Douma in Damascus. In Latakia crowds were prevented to set a protest camp and in the North Kurds have joined protets. On April 3rd, the president named a new PM, Adel Safar, the former minister of agriculture.

Egypt

Transition rules – on March 30, the Supreme Military Council released a revised a constitutional decree that will act as a temporary constitution, replacing the suspended 1971 one until a new constitution is drafted. Among other things, it reduces the authorities of the Shoura Council (senate) and it retained a Mubarak-era provision mandating that 50 percent of the parliament consist of workers and farmers.

Political change - Deputy Prime Minister Yehia al-Gamal held on March 30 what the government considered to be comprehensive "national dialogue" with 160 representatives of various political forces, intellectuals, public figures and youth of the 25 January revolution. 27 Egyptian human rights organizations on Thursday criticized the government for excluding certain political forces from the so-called "national dialogue" it is holding, among those excluded were Wafd, Tagammu, Nasserist and Ghad parties, as well as representatives of human rights and civil society organizations, from the initiative.

The Egyptian military has fired three top officials from the country’s state-run television and radio institutions. the government also sacked several state newspaper editors and officials.

Renewed protests – As a sign of a return of crowds after the referendum, 4000 have demonstrated on a “Save the Revolution” Friday on Tahrir sq. and more groups in other cities, largely against the military’s lack of action against former regime figures and structures. After being hailed as the country’s saviours, heavy military hand in breaking up demonstrations and credible allegations of torturing arrested protesters have lowered the army’s credibility. 

At least 5,000 people have been arrested and tried in military courts since Mubarak dismissed his government and sent the armed forces into the streets Jan. 28., acc. to Mona Seif from the Hisham Mubarak Law Center. They face expeditionary military tribunals instead of civilians ones.

Religious politics – Islamists did not appear in the protests, despite the pleas of their younger members. The rift within MB widened, as Ibrahim al-Zaafarani, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Shura Council, and Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, one of the Brotherhood's iconic leaders, have both officially resigned from the group. Al-Zaafarani said that Brotherhood Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie's statement that members may not join parties other than the group’s planned Freedom and Justice Party was one reason behind his resignation.

Supreme Council for Sufi Orders organised a protest on March 29 to denounce the demolition of the estimated 16 shrines and historic Sufi mosques were that targeted by members of the Salafi movement acc. to, Sheikh Gaber Kasem al-Kholy, the highest Sufi Sheikh in Alexandria. The protest was joined by a number of leaders of the Shia community in Egypt. 

The Salafist organisation Gama’at al-islamiyya is headed by repented extremists who are set to compete for votes; so is the popular television preacher Amr Khaled.

Palestine – Protesters met in Cairo last week to demonstrate against the sell of Egyptian oil and gas to Israel, following a ruling by Supreme Court that allowed such trade. According to the opponents of the ruling, Egypt might trade with Israel at prices lower than regional standards.

Chaotic normalcy – Football matches have resumed after weeks long interruption, only to kead to an incident, when angry Egyptian attacked the players of a Tunisian team. Epyptian PM apologised to Tunisia, as well as Egyptian public on facebook.

Protests 

Massive protests continue in Yemen. A coalition of opposition groups called for a transitional unity government under the current vice-president. 

In Tunisia demonstrators demanding further lifting of restrictions on hijab in public space after the government allowed hijab ID pictures. Over the past two months, the United Nations says that more than 10,000 Tunisians have arrived by boat on the Italian island of Lampedusa, a gateway to Europe 70 miles across the Mediterranean

Quote

"The military council is inexplicably slow in responding to our demands,” said Mohammad el-Qassas, a leader of the youth wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and a member of the Jan. 25 coalition. “Protests and popular pressure must return, because they are only the real method of realizing the people’s demands.” (NYT)

Expected events

Fatah and Hamas will hold talks in Cairo, planning to overcome internal division and restore Palestinian national unity, in April. The Syrian PM will form a government and “study the possibility of lifting the martial law” and other ways to quell protests.

Middle East Change Observer No. 3

Libya war

The no fly zone over Libya has been installed and NATO has assumed the leading role of the operation. After a week of aerial shelling, paving their way, the rebels were able to retake Ajdbiya, after Qaddafi’s troops had lost contact with the HQ, and also the two major oil-export facilities, Brega and Ras Lanuf. The national committee in Benghazi resumed exporting small amounts of oil. Women demonstrations were held across Eastern Libya in support of the Tripoli women, who managed to burst into the Western press hotel and tell her story of rape and abuse, seemingly a part of tactic of Qaddafi’s soldiers. Qatari’s planes have joined the effort. President Obama has announced the US involvement will be limited, yet intent on regime change.

Major protests in Syria, Jordan, Yemen

The international community’s decision to back by force Libyan rebels seems to fuel wider protests.

Syria has now clearly entered the overall ME process. Many tens of thousand hade marched in Deraa on March 25, more were killed during the funeral march and government installations were burnt. Protests have spread from Deraa to mostly small cities, but also to Homs, Lattakia and Damascus. 20 were killed in southern Sanamayn and 12 died in Latakia, after police opened fire on protests and after a fire exchange between unidentified armed opposition and the police. Nationwide 61 are reported killed. Amid repression and fear of civil war, Syria has announced the lifting of emergency and the willingness to restore some civil liberties. Pro-regime demonstrations took place in large cities. Anti-regime demonstrations openly called for the “fall of the regime.” National unity demonstration in Latakia sought to diffuse sectarian tension.

In Yemen, tens of thousands marched on Friday’s 25 “day of departure”. The central government and security forced showed signs of retreating, especially to looting, to local separatists and Islamist groups. A weapon factory explosion was reported. Unruly negotiation with a coalition of students, tribe leaders, political and party defectors from the regime and even some of Salih’s tribe are going on about the terms of President Salih’s resignation. He said on March 27 he wanted to yield power to “safe hands”. His offer to step down at the end of the year and after elections, a previous opposition demand, was rejected by the protestors.

In Jordan ongoing protests have first turned violent as demonstration was attacked by pro-monarchy mob and police intervened.

Saudi Arabia will hold long delayed municipal elections, though without allowing women vote.

Egypt

Political change – After a referendum, in which 77% voters voted for constitution amendments, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces made further steps towards transition. It said it will hold parliamentary elections in September, apparently giving more time to emerging political forces to organize their political parties, and announced new law with reduced barriers for the forming of political parties, especially religious ones. The Armies postponement of election date appears be to a gesture to outweigh their success in the referendum, as well as the display of the mobilising force of Muslim Brothers, Salafists and ex-NPD. The presidential election was not given any date yet. The army announced on facebook to release a “temporary constitution”, combining the approved amendments, old text and guiding elements for the transition. 

Islamists - While the Islamist front showed its force, it also began to fracture. On March 26 young members of the Muslim Brotherhood held a news conference asking for a greater say for youth in the organization. On March 27 Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, a prominent member of the Brotherhood's executive Guidance Bureau, announced that he will form a more liberal party. So did Ibrahim Al Zafaarani, another senior Brotherhood leader, popular with the youth. Mohammed Badie, the Brotherhood's General Guide, and the spokesman Essam Erian, criticised the development and said that Brotherhood members would only be allowed to join the organization's official Freedom and Justice Party. In a positive gesture, the MB announced its acceptance of Copts and women running for presidency, an issue previously controversially debated among MB members, and its willingness to discuss the youth’s criticism.

Power – On March 23 the council endorsed a plan to outlaw all kinds of demonstrations and sit-ins. The army continues to detain and take new prisoners (estimated in the hundreds) from among the protestors. Some have apparently been tortured, others have been sentenced by military courts to multiyear sentences. Civic organisations concentrate on tracking these arrests and trials.

Symbolic change – a number of public interest lawsuits were filed against the deposed government of Hosni Mubarak, in many cases seeking to erase the Mubarak name from institutions, as his name is spontaneously being deleted from public urban installations.

Quote

“There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” said Elijah Zarwan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “It makes sense if you are the military — you want stability and people off the street. The Brotherhood is one address where you can go to get 100,000 people off the street.” (NYT)

Expected events

Qaddafi’s forces have started fleeing from central Libya towns, ahead of the advance of air-supported rebels. The next battle be that of Sirt, that could fall next week and then Misurata, which has been under heavy shelling from Qaddafi’s forces. Syrian president is to announce a strategy for reforms, while protests will continue. Egypt’s army is expected to spell out more rules for the transition period. Yemen might descend into deeper disintegration of the central power.

Some Islamic scholars on Islam and politics

The Egyptian Islamic scholar and former scholar at the Cairo Ibn Khaldoun Center, Ahmed Sobhi Mansour, argues in Mediaeval theocracies in a modern age in al-Ahram that modern secular liberal regimes are more Islamic than theocatic regres who do not render any service to Islam:

"Any classification of "Islamic states" is political and demagogic, not scientific. Such states have nothing to do with the true Islamic state created by the Prophet Mohamed, who laid its foundations as decreed by the Qur'an. Today's so-called Islamic states are not based on absolute freedom of faith and a delicate balance between a free market, social justice, human rights and true participatory democracy. The modern secular state in its present form, in fact, is a step on the way to the realisation of the true Islamic state."

"The movements that have striven to create Islamic states in Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen believe in the same mediaeval doctrines that run counter to the principles of the Qur'an and the practice of the Prophet."

"These mediaeval theocracies will not only destroy the future of their own people, thus rendering a great service to America, but will also destroy Islam. We must implement rigorous reform, based on human and citizens' rights. Our degree of success will determine our ability to create a true Islamic state, in which religion belongs to God and citizens have reason to hope and strive for equality."

Ahmed Subhy Mansour now lives in the USA. As he explains in the New York Times, Islamic reformers have long been persecuted in Egypt - by the Egyptian government through the mecanism of the state of exception

"To curry favor with this influential religious establishment, the Egyptian government has brutally cracked down on members of the Koranist movement, leading to the imprisonment and torture of over 20 members and the exile of many more. This unique collaboration between the government and Islamic traditionalists refutes current claims by the state that Egypt is secular and that it is working to fight extremism and terrorism."

"Many Americans do not realize that there is a war being waged in Egypt against Muslim reformers. These reformers call themselves "Koranists" because they focus solely on the Koran and advocate a modern interpretation of Islam that rejects Shariah law."

Gilbert Achcar  on religious politics in Egypt:

"The regime conceded a lot to them (Islamists) in the socio-cultural sphere, increasing  Islamic censorship in the cultural field being but one example. That was the easiest thing the regime could do to appease the Brotherhood. As a result, Egypt made huge steps backward from the secularisation that was consolidated under Gamal Abdul-Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s."

Ali Allawi, ex-minister in post-Saddam Iraq and an Islamic thinker's criticism od Muslim religious politics and renewal of Islamic civilisation:
For a long time, the two worlds of Islam, the outer world of political and social action and the inner world of spiritual and moral realization, seemed entirely at odds with each other. One was angry at Islam’s subordination, insistent on recognition and power, on challenging the status quo; the other was serene, introspective, and immersed in the intangible. The canvas of the first was societies and nations; of the second, the self and the individual.
The essential unity of Islam was greatly diminished, if not quite yet destroyed. People could no longer move effortlessly between the two realms of Islam.


As I became more involved in politics, through writings, speeches, and then as an active member of the opposition to the Baathist regime in Iraq and subsequently as a cabinet minister in Iraq from 2003 to 2006, it became clear that few of the Muslims I encountered in the political arena were concerned with the spiritual aspects of Islam. In practice, Islamists behaved no differently, and often worse, than their secular counterparts. Abuse of power, squandering or outright theft of public resources, and corruption were all endemic to Islamistled governments.

In postSaddam Iraq, however, the full extent of the dissonance between Islamic political and religious life was laid bare. The murderous violence that was unleashed by radical Wahhabiinspired Islamists was sanctioned with laborious jurisprudential “justifications” from leading religious figures. 

Not once during my threeyear stint in the Iraqi government did I witness an Islamist party, Sunni or Shia, promote an Islamic cause that they had earlier propounded in their manifestoes. Gone were their proposals for an Islamic economy, an Islamic system of laws, or an Islamic state. For example, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Islamic Dawa Party, from which emerged consecutive prime ministers, Ibrahim Jaafari and Nuri Kamal alMaliki, showed no interest in pursuing any even mildly Islamic program once they were installed in office. The ruling parties were driven by an obsessive desire for material gain and a desire to keep in the good graces of Washington.

A sad and dispiriting spectacle, it was evidence that Muslims had become divorced from the wellsprings of Islamic ethics: the search for a felicitous life, a harmonious and just society, and moral virtue, which in turn is a pathway to the Unseen.

Muslims cannot simply partake of the technological fruits of modern civilization while simultaneously rejecting or questioning its premises. That makes them nothing more than inert consumers of the effort and creativity of others — even if they continue to smugly assert the superiority of their spiritual ways. That is the ultimate fallacy of the Islamists

Sandmonkey's advice after the referendum: Egyptian have to play politics now

March 20, 2011 By The Sandmonkey 

Dear Jan25 people,

So today the results of the referendum came out, and as expected the YES vote won. In case you didn’t expect it, well, there were 4 reasons why that happened:

1) How many Egyptians joined the protests at their peak? The day Mubarak left Office, it was estimated 10-20 million in the streets. What’s 20 million out of 85 million again? 25%? That means there are 65 million who never joined the protests from the beginning, and who probably miss the stability and security of the old regime. 75% that is used to say YES and there is no proof that they changed their mentality or behavior. Never-mind those amongst you who also voted yes for their reasons. I am personally surprised it wasn’t lower.

2) Cairo is not Egypt. This may seem obvious to others, but let me repeat that point again: CAIRO IS NOT EGYPT. Stop your  Cairo-is-the-center-of-the-universe chauvinism. 25 million live in Cairo, 60 million live elsewhere. And, let’s be honest, the NO vote people did not manage to get their message across to the people effectively. There was no real TV campaign, no real grassroots campaign and no actual debate. Some individual efforts here and there, but no real coordination. This has to change.

3) The Military & the MB & the Salafis & the NDP were pushing for a YES vote. The Military, as always, just wanted to get out of this mess as quickly as possible, and the YES vote meant just that for them without having to face any real headaches. The rest knew that a YES vote gives them the best chances to win the Parliament and thus re-write the new constitution, and they had the money and the organization and tools to push for it. You didn’t.

4) You no longer represent the people. You really don’t, at least when it comes to their concerns. Your concerns and their concerns are not the same anymore. You care about the revolution, & the arrest of NDP figures & getting the country on the right track. They care about economic security, the return of stability and normalcy the fastest way possible. They only have the military now as the organized force running the country & providing some security, and you are pointing out-correctly, mind you- that the military is detaining your friends and colleagues and torturing them and violating their rights to protests, and you want them to stand up against the military, the only force in the country in their perspective that is keeping Egypt from descending into total chaos. Yeah, that will win them over.

Mind you, this is not totally your fault. There are some things you are just not paying attention to, besides that you have been losing the people steadily. The First of which are the original demands. Remember those? Remember all the millions that went down for the minimum wage and you completely swept this under the rug to engage in a battle with State Security and the military? How many of the original demands have been met so far? Why is this not a bigger issue?

You are also not noticing that the Military doesn’t like you very much, and really, why would it? The Military likes stability, and we started a revolution which brought down a regime that put them first of everyone in the country and instead managed to get them to not only abandon their stable life-style under Mubarak’s rule but to start working harder than they ever had in years. You think they care about you or your demands? You don’t think that they won’t go after every single one of us when the time comes? This is not paranoia..this is simple logic. A force that can bring down a regime can take down the next one or even bring down the military structure itself; why allow that force to continue to exist or have popular support if you can take that away? In case you haven’t noticed, the military only listens when we manage to amass lots of people, and could care less when we only manage to get a couple of thousands. They don’t like you or your ideas, and they cave in when they do in order to maintain stability & their image as the public’s saviors. And you know all those times you keep mentioning that the Military is part of the old regime? Well, they are noticing it, and they don’t like that either. Why wouldn’t they attack you, allow propaganda against you, tell people that you are immoral, armed and/or on drugs, arrest you, beat you or torture you? What’s in it for them if you succeed?

How is any of this a surprise to you?

So, now what? Well, now is the hard part. This is the part where we stop playing revolution, and start playing politics for the sake of the country. This means caring more about perception and public support over righteous and legitimate demands. Do you know what that means? Well, if you do, but think that the revolution must continue on the street, well, congratulations, you are the reason why we are losing. If you don’t, well, please relax and keep an open mind, cause this is about to get really uncomfortable.

1) You have to get over the referendum results now, & see it as the gift it is: Oh yes, we lost, and it’s great news. Why? Well, because first of all, we managed to find out how many people are really with us, and which areas or locations we need to focus on (All of Egypt..Imagine?) and the percentages from those areas. We now have actual statistics, people. We know each district by vote. We know how many people we have in every voting district. We have a nation-wide base. Sure, 20%, is small, but it’s not insignificant, and you can totally build on it. And now you also know what tactics the MB and the Salafists use to mobilize the vote. We now know how they intend to play this, and this gives us an incredible advantage, cause we still didn’t play yet. You wanna start? Congratulate them on the results of the referendum. Call everyone you know who voted yes and enthusiastically congratulate them. Offer to host referendum parties if you can even. Don’t lose them even if you disagree with them. The wall you build now over this could exist come election time, which is when you will really need every vote. In case you didn’t notice, this was just a test-run.

2) You have to focus on the people & their issues, and push yours aside for now: Yes, you will have to address the economy. Yes, you will have to offer constructive solutions to the Police problem that isn;t simply “clean them up”. Yes, you will have to lay off the military criticism and, as horrible and hard as this might be, to put the issue of those who are detained, jailed, tortured or beaten by the military on the back-burner for now. Yes, I know that they are our brothers and sisters, but I also know that this is how they are distracting you. They are making you focus on small battles instead of focusing on the war. How many of us were tried or arrested? 50? 100? 10,000? We are talking about  the hearts and minds of about 85 million, and you are not doing shit to win them. Win the public, and all of your friends will be released immediately. Continue to lose the public and you will eventually join them. Simple, really!

3) Offer solutions that appeal to the public and get you support: I know, I know. You would think demanding accountability and the end of corruption would get you all the public support you ever needed, but, nah. They spread lies about you while you are running around trying to find your jailed friends and not responding or engaging back, and whatever goodwill you got for the revolution, well, it’s EGYPT’s revolution now. Everyone has the “January 25″ stickers on their car, which means that your achievement is now their achievement, and thus you get no credit. Ok, start earning credit again. START SELLING THE MINIMUM WAGE for example. In a country where 40% live under 2 $ a day, how is it possible not to get support for a proposal that would guarantee every egyptian 1200 EGP a month, especially in these economically turbulent times? You wanna demonstrate? Demonstrate for the Minimum wage, and many egyptians will join you, thus showing you have public support again. If the Military Council says yes to the minimum wage, Good, you not only gave people freedom, but also got them extra money in their pockets every month, which they LOVE, and as an added bonus you obliterated the myth that you don’t care about the economic hardships of regular Egyptians. That can’t suck. If they refuse, well, that’s good too. It will show that the military doesn’t care for the economic hardship of the poor, while you do , which makes you with the people again. And while they are there all dissapointed at the not-so-benevolent  supreme council, you start letting the people know what else they have been up to. You don’t need to lie to manipulate and sway public sentiment to your side, you just got to pick your timing.

4) Start organizing yourselves into an offline grassroots movement, Zenga Zenga style: This one might seem self-evident, but how to do it is the tricky part.

• First of all, find your people all over Egypt, and start registering them and training them. Start with the Polling data alongside those you know through life, facebook or Twitter. You will find them
• Secondly, organize yourselves into different units: The Internet-Unit (to lead efforts on reaching out and organizing the base on the net), the door-to-door Unit ( Go to every neighborhood, knock on 10 apartments and talk to people), the Phone Unit ( Use telemarketing techniques: call people and talk to them about the revolution. Have a training for the phone unit and conversation scenarios. Reach everyone again), the local Media Unit (those are your Intelligence and propaganda arms. They keep you abreast of the news of the areas they are in, let you know who are the people to watch out for and which are the ones to support and they are responsible for catering the media message to the needs of the locals) and the election observers unit (self-explanatory really). The more organized your people are, and the more trained they are in your talking points and counter-arguments, the easier it is for them to sell their ideas to the people.
• Thirdly, Create the coalition of new parties in order to bring in all those new ragtag parties together and make them a cohesive block that could stand a chance in the parliamentary elections by having one party’s members vote for other Parties’ candidates in precincts that they are not running their own candidates in, and they will do the same in return. Every vote counts.
• Last but not least, FUNDRAISE ALL THE TIME. We need the money. The NDP has all the money they stole from the country and the MB has all the money they get from Saudi & Qatar, so we need to get our own. Hit up for donations everyone you know in Egypt  who isn’t interested returning the corrupt to power or having this country turn into a theocracy. Contact your relatives and your friends abroad. Create Festivals and events whose tickets will fund your operations. There is no campaign finance legislation in place, which the MB is totally abusing, and we can as well. Let’s do that until we have enough of a majority to place in a law in place that would make this entirely unpleasant situation we currently live in behind us.

5) Start reaching out to Imams and Priests now: I once suggested that we need to reach to Imams and Priests in order to get them on our side, and I was hissed at for wanting to mix Politics with Religion. Well, as much as I agree with that sentiment and truly wish we live in a country where people don’t vote based on religion, ehh..welcome to Egypt. We are religious people, and whether we like it or not, Imams and Priests are community leaders. We have to engage them, get them on our side and have them help us with the hearts and minds of their flock. An easy place to start are the individual churches and the Sufi festivals (Fun Fact of the Day: the Sufis are 16 million in Egypt. I KNOW!), get those two groups, and then focus on all the local imams that are in your area. If you manage to convince 1 Imam in every 5, you already caused them to lose a sizable part of their base. Try to convince 2 

6) Know thy enemy: We need to compile a data-base on all the NDP names we know in every district, and then research their history and public record in the parliament. We need to get the history of all the known MB MP’s in the egyptian parliament and find out what bullshit policies they were pursuing during their tenure there. We need to know how popular they are and how much dirt there is on them. We need to know who their financial backers are and what businesses they own. A lot of the info is already available online. Let’s compile it and learn from it. This will be useful later.

7) Prepare for the propaganda war: The other side has already started the Propaganda war over the refrendum, using lies and fear-mongering to get people to vote their way. I am not a fan of lying or fear-mongering, but I have no problem using the truth as a weapon to hammer my agenda home. Tell people the truth: Tell them of the MB’s record in the parliament- how they wanted to ban books and music videos and the net. Tell people what Hamas- the MB of Ghaza- did t the population the moment they seized power (No music, No shisha, no concerts, no free media, intimidation and fear). Start creating banners accusing them of being agents for wanting to sell the country’s soul to the Gulfies, and start asking loudly where their seemingly endless money comes from during this economic crisis. Play on nationalism and national Unity. Joined demonstrations of muslims and christians that congregate in front of the MB Supreme Council’s office, and do a sit in there until they vow to stop using sectarian tones and ads, and when they vow, throw it in their face every time they use a religious slogan. Go After the Salafis as well. If they call you infidels, you call them Taliban. Remind people when they used to throw acid on girls for showing some legs or on their face for not wearing a Niqab. Remind people of the days when they used to target them and kill them, or when they used to crash weddings for being Haram or burn video stores and christian jewelery stores. Keep repeating everywhere you go that Egypt will never be Afghanistan, and people will start repeating that every time they see a Salafi or an MB member trying to use religion to his advantage. Start putting them on the defensive. They are weaker than you think, and the ways to neutralize them are endless.

That’s all for now, but let me remind you of one last thing before you go: You are more powerful than you know. You brought down Mubarak and his regime. You changed this country, gave it a future, and there is no way in hell you will allow those who use people’s ignorance to hijack it. They aimed to scare you yesterday, and instead they pissed you off. They pissed off the smartest, most fearless and most capable group of egyptians this nation ever gave birth to, thinking that you will see beards and yelling and you will run away screaming. They thought wrong. They miscalculated. They fucked up. And they will find that out soon enough. We gave them our hand in friendship, we gave them the benefit of the doubt and we wanted them equal partners in the building of this country’s future, while they were busy plotting against us with the NDP of all people. Well, moral clarity time: The NDP and the Islamists are two faces to the same coin, and neither can be allowed to control this country ever again. It’s time to quit being distracted, and start organizing and engaging people NOW. War has been declared on all of us, and we will be damned if we lose now. Just like the NDP, we will fight them until we can’t.

And in case you are wondering: We will win

Middle East Change Observer No. 2

Libya war

As Qadhafi armoured forces progressed towards the eastern half of the country, the UN SC voted a 1973 resolution, authorising air force to stop the killing of civilians, not through a no fly zone, but also by attacks on ground forces. China, Russia and Germany abstained. Qadhafi intensified the attacks on Misurata and south of Beghazi. On March 19 a military action was started by the US, UK, France and Italy that effectively stopped the tank attacks.  A heavy destruction of Libya air defence system was underway in the first two days of the operation, causing criticism by Amr Moussa.

Egypt

The constitutional referendum went ahead on March 19. The Egyptians approved the constitutional amendments with 77% (and high participation est. at 60%) thus ending a period of non-legality. Egyptians were divided and held a robust public debate about the amendments. The opposition, including M. Baradei, called for a no, while the Muslim Brotherhood, NPD and Salafists widely lobbied for a yes. The Islamists came out as allies of the army and NPD transition plan and showed a superior degree of popular mobilisation, over the “civic” revolution. The NDP was accused of bribing, irregularities were observed but not a systematic vote-rigging. The state media were not to hold an overt campaign, although they seemed to support a yes vote. M. Al-Baradei was prevented from voting at his polling station, due to crowds and thug violence.

Transformation – a fourth demand of the popular uprising (ouster of the president, dissolution of the parliament, change of the government) – The government disbanded the state security (amn a-dawla) on March 15, replacing it with a new institution charged with anti-terrorism (al-amn al-watani).

Minister Mansour el-Essawy said the system would play no further role in citizens' daily lives and apologized to the Egyptian people for the violations that took place on the part of some elements of the police apparatus in the past. The decision is seen as a gesture of change ahead of the referendum of March 19.

The former head of the organization has already been arrested in relation to the violent crackdown on January protests.  Two officers were accused of murdering Khalid Sayid, the online activist whose brutal death fuelled the popular movement.

Authorities –The Syrian ambassador to Cairo met with Hussein Tantawi, thus ending the boycott of Syria, effective since 2006 and related to the Arabs countries reluctance to support Hezbollah. The reconciliation with Syria is perhaps the first significant foreign relations step Egypt has taken under Tantawi.

Violence – thugs (baltagiyya) stories were reported, explaining how people got commanded and bribed into attacking the protests and indicating a direct responsibility of ex-PM A. Shafiq.

Advances

Morocco's King Mohammed VI promised sweeping constitutional reforms on television, including real powers for a popularly elected prime minister instead of a royal appointee, as well as a free judiciary. He also announced the formation of a commission to work on the constitutional revisions, with proposals to be made to him by June. A referendum will then be held. Opposition Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) leader Abdelilah Benkirane welcomed the speech saying that Mohammed had "reacted positively to the demands made by the parties and young people". Six people were killed in unrest that erupted after demonstrations on February 20 including five found burned to death in a bank set ablaze by people whom officials labelled vandals. On February 21 the king launched the Economic and Social Council, a body charged with advice to "pursue the realisation of structural reforms".

The Algerian parliament voted to lift the country’s state of emergency, a measure in place since 1992.

Oman's ruler Sultan Qaboos has decided to cede some legislative powers to a partially elected council, which previously only offered policy advice.

State violence in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria

In Bahrain 2000 Saudi troops and UAE police officers moved in, the Bahraini military cleared the protest centre at Manama’s Pearl sq. on March 16, killing 5 protesters and arresting opposition.

In Yemen security forces snipers and government supporters opened fire on demonstrators after prayers on March 17 as the largest protest so far gathered in the centre of the capital, Sana’a and killed 46, doubling the number of those killed in protests. A tourism minister as well as state news agency and press editors resigned in protest. A state of emergency was declared.

Two were killed in Dera’a in clashed with police, after protests broke out in four cities in Syria. 20 000 marched in the funeral on March 18, demanding the release of political prisoners, revolution.

Protests continue in Iraq almost every day against the corruption and incompetence of Maliki’s government,in Kurdistan protesters demand the departure of president Barzani.

Quotes

The Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that while the immediate objective of the intervention was to halt violence against civilians, the "final result of any negotiation would have to be the decision by Col. Gadhafi to leave."

Expected events

In Libya the ground war may continue especially in cities – Misurata and Benghazi – where air strikes are ineffective and dangerous and it remains to be seen whether and how the rebels can resist, whether Qadhafi consolidates his grip on West Libya and whether (and when) his own camp begins to crumble.

Egypt wakes to a new political reality – the restoration of legality will lead to first changes - founding of political parties and a start of a campaign.

In Yemen the anti-protest violence helped rally the opposition, more protests are to be expected.