Middle East Change Observer No. 9

Syria: regime’s winning offensive against unrest? The military crackdown on Syria’s escalated on the weekend, affirming the government’s intent to end the uprising by force. Tanks were sent to major cities Hama, Homs and Baniyas. Baniyas, Jabla and part of Homs are besieged with communications severed. Shelling and fighting was reported from Homs, and heavy gunfire from a number of southern villages. At least 10,000 protesters have been detained according to the NYT and dozens killed. Military presence was reduced in Deraa and water and electricity restored in Baniays. Syrian television broadcasts images of soldiers’ burials. Rami Makhlouf, Bashar Asad’s cousin and major regime-linked entrepreneur declared to NYT that the regime will fight till the end and threatened with consequences for regional stability if it falls.

The government appears to feel more secure. The urban opposition is incapable to mount coordinated protests and according to Al-Jazeera, the Kurds decided not to weigh in with numbers. Reports of limited defections continue to circulate, yet the government’s pillars seem firm. The regime faces a landscape indelibly changed by the seven weeks of unrest undermining the longstanding promise by the government of economic modernization, if not political reform.

Libya: diplomatic support for the rebel organisation

The rebels pushed Qadhafi forces out of Misrata, control the airport there and fight in a more coordinated way around Ajdabiya. NATO announced "the start of a second phase of its military operation aimed at command centre.

The ruling National Transitional Council in Benghazi was deadlocked in its attempts to agree on an executive committee as two high-profile members, Mustafa Jalil and Ghoga, Abdelhafiz, clashed over weapons imports. A 15-strong committee was supposed to be agreed a week ago. Only 8 names of the committee were agreed on May 8, with Jalil’s ally, Mahmoud Jabril, confirmed as foreign minister. The rebels still have two generals, each insisting that they are the commander: Adbul Fattah Younes, Qadhafi’s former interior minister, backed by the TNC, and Khalifa Heftar, an army general who defected to the US in the 80s.

Representatives from 25 Libyan local councils and tribes have met for the first time in Abu Dhabi, expressing support for the uprising against Gaddafi. A representative from Sirte, Qadhafi's hometown, was among the more than 20 delegates in attendance. The Contact Group on Libya met on May 5 in Rome, calling for an international recognition of the National Transitional Council and for providing the rebels with advanced weaponry and funds.

Egypt: sectarian clashes in Cairo

Sectarian violence - 12 died and hundreds were injured in clashes between Copts and Muslims in Cairo’s neighbourhood of Imbaba on May 8, hours after a TV interview with Kamilia Shehata, a Coptic woman who some Muslims allege converted to Islam and held against her will by the Church. Later Christians protested outside the state television building, accusing the military government of indifference. A police report and Christians in the neighbourhood placed the blame for the violence on the Salafis. According to local report, battle lines that had more to do with tribal allegiances than any religious or political ideas.

Opposition - Thousands of activists from groups and political parties that supported the Egyptian revolution gathered in Cairo on May 7 for a conference aimed at coordinating efforts to protect the gains of the revolution and ensure a transition to full democracy. The conference was organized by the National Council, a body created by noted architect and visionary activist Mamdouh Hamza. Among the major names in attendence were presidential candidates Ayman Nour, Hisham al-Bastawisy, and Hamdeen Sabahy, although they did not address the conference. Mohamed Al-Baradai did not attend. The Muslim Brotherhood did not officially participate but members attended unofficially.

The conference, titled the “First Conference of Egypt: Towards Protecting the Revolution”, brought all revolutionary groups together and generated proposals on key issues of the transition. Among others, National Council demands that a new constitution should be written and put in place before the coming parliamentary elections.

Justice - On May 11, a court convicted the country’s former tourism minister Zuheir Garana of corruption and sentenced him to five years in prison. Egypt’s prosecutor general ordered that the detention of ousted President Hosni Mubarak be extended for another 15 days pending investigation of accusations of illegally amassing wealth and of his role in the use of live ammunition against pro-democracy protesters. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) announced military trials for 190 people arrested in the violence.

Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen: protests

In Morocco, thousands have participated in an anti-violence march after the terrorist attacks in Marrakech, and demanded political reforms. Authorities have arrested three suspects and said the leader had loyalties to al-Qaida. There’s been no claim of responsibility.

Tunisia has reinstated a night-time curfew after 4 days of unrest and clashes between protesters and police, triggered by a warning by a former minister that Ben Ali loyalists might seize power in a coup if Islamists won the July election

In Yemen, Yemen’s ruling General People’s Congress offered a new timetable for President Saleh to relinquish power. The president threatened with more force against protest.

The king of Bahrain announced that the state of emergency he imposed in mid-March will end June 1.

Expected events

Several international activist groups called for a “march of millions” into Gaza on 15 May, the 63rd anniversary of the establishment of the state of Israel. Egyptian pro-democracy, pro-Palestinian and sport groups - are among the organizers. The call marks the tendency of international politics becoming a matter of activist street militancy.

Middle East Change Observer No. 8/5-2011

Syria: protest spread despite crackdown

Despite the invasion of the cities of Deraa and Douma and mass arrests, large protests came out on April 30. This time, several political, ethnic and religious groups who previously kept their distance from the uprising, joined the protests. Among theme were the Muslim Brotherhood and the Druze minority, the Kurds in Qamishli and other minorities. A petition signed by dozens of writers and academics from all ethnic groups showed that the uprising is above sectarian considerations. There were also sizable protests in the crucial metropolitan centres of Aleppo and Damascus that had remained relatively calm before.
Security forces are said to have killed 62 persons bringing the total deaths at estimated 600. Mass killing by the 4th brigade went on in Alawi area near the Lebanese border.
More news came out about mutiny or a split in the 5th Army Division about killing civilians. Over 300 members of the Baath Party have resigned and publicly condemned the crackdown. Protest groups have vowed to hold daily noon protests until the "sieges" of Dera'a and of Douma. In a Kurdish village near Qamishli some 2,000 people attended the funeral of a conscript believed to be killed for refusing to take part in the repression.
The Syrian authorities have offered an amnesty to opposition groups who have defied the regime, saying the "vandals and terrorists" have 15 days to hand themselves in or face the consequences.
The USA imposed sanctions on several key members of the Assad regime, among them on Assad brother, Maher, commander of the Syrian Army's 4th Armored Division

Libya: Qaddafi targeted as he loses ground

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi survived a NATO air-strike on April 30 that killed his youngest son Saif al-Arab and three of his grandchildren in command-and-control centre near Bab al-Azizia. The NATO coalition denied assassination attempts but conceded a change of tactics: an increased targeting the decision centres of Libyan regime in Tripoli and Sirte after it has destroyed most accessible targets.
Qaddafi had tried to mine Misrata harbor, and had threatened with a tribes attack against the city, nothing of which materialised. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Col Muammar Qaddafi to step down.

Egypt: shift in foreign policy

Palestine - In a surprise announcement following secret talks in Cairo, the Fatah party and its Islamist rival Hamas said they had put a four-year rift behind them. The two parties pledged to form an interim unity government with elections in both the West Bank and Gaza in December. After the reconciliation, the Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil al-Araby has urged the United States to support the declaration of an independent Palestinian state.
The Foreign Ministry Egypt announced it intends to open its border with Gaza. The gas pipeline towards Jordan and Israel exploded near Arish on Apríl 28.
Islamists - In its first meeting since 1995, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Shura Council on April 30 announced the leaders of its would-be political party and pledged not to run for more than half the parliamentary seats in Egypt’s upcoming parliamentary elections. This would mean an increase in the number of candidates the party will field it the September parliamentary elections up from an announced 30 % of the constituencies, in a sign of the increasing confidence of Egypt's Islamists. The contradiction with earlier statements makes MB appear little credible. The group affirmed that it would not support any brother who decides to compete for the state’s highest executive office, in reference to prominent reformist Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, who had announced he might run for president independently of the new MB party.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s legislative body appointed Mohammed Morsy as president of the Freedom and Justice Party, Essam al-Erian as vice president and Saad al-Katatny as secretary general. As a sign of the independence of their political party from the mother organization - a plea constantly reiterated by observers and the group’s reformist voices - the Shura Council required the three leaders to relinquish their positions in the Guidance Bureau. The appointment was criticised by young Brotherhood members.
Protests - Three recently-appointed governors who were rejected by the public, causing unrest in the respective governorates.
Egypts’ workers chanted against Mubarak during the Labor Day celebrations on 1 May. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf did not attend the celebrations even though he was invited. In a dramatic end, a group of thugs overran the stage and put an end to the party.
Justice - The prosecution received a report from a fact-finding commission charged with investigating the events of the 25 January revolution, stating that prison breaks were planned and that police used ammunition and tear gas to create chaos.
Budget - Before the unrest, Egypt had predicted a deficit of 7.9 percent of GDP for fiscal 2010/11, but later revised that upwards to 9.4 percent. The IMF projects a plunge in growth to 1.0 percent this year, after a 5.1 percent expansion in 2010. Planning and International Cooperation Minister Faiza Abu el-Naga announced on Monday a development plan worth LE230 billion to kick-start the economy after Mubarak's ouster.

Yemen: failure of the transition deal

President Ali Abdullah Saleh did not attend the signing of the Gulf states negotiated deal, bringing down the only serious attempt to end the crisis. Large duelling demonstrations were held in the capital of Sanaa. Tens of thousands of protesters marched up demanding the ouster of President Saleh.

Morocco: a first terrorist attack

On April 28 a bomb in a crowded tourist cafe in Marrakesh killed 16 people, in a first Al-Qaeda style attack since the Arab revolutions began.
On May 1, thousands of people, including trade union members, marched in Morocco’s cities demanding a faster transition toward democracy and decrying terrorism

Juan Cole: An Arab Spring for Women

An Arab Spring for Women: The Missing Story From the Middle East

Juan and Shahin Cole on Huffington Post

The “Arab Spring” has received copious attention in the American media, but one of its crucial elements has been largely overlooked: the striking role of women in the protests sweeping the Arab world. Despite inadequate media coverage of their role, women have been and often remain at the forefront of those protests.

As a start, women had a significant place in the Tunisian demonstrations that kicked off the Arab Spring, often marching up Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis, the capital, with their husbands and children in tow. Then, the spark for the Egyptian uprising that forced President Hosni Mubarak out of office was a January 25th demonstration in Cairo’s Tahrir Square called by an impassioned young woman via a video posted on Facebook. In Yemen, columns of veiled women have come out in Sanaa and Taiz to force that country’s autocrat from office, while in Syria, facing armed secret police, women have blockaded roads to demonstrate for the release of their husbands and sons from prison.

But with such bold gestures go fears. 

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