All you need to know about the REVOLT IN EGYPT Interview with Hazem Kandil

HAZEM KANDIL - REVOLT IN EGYPT - Interview

After a reign of thirty years, Mubarak was overthrown by a popular movement in less than three weeks. How did the uprising originate?

Over the last few years, a rebellion had been brewing under the surface. There was a general sense that the status quo could not be sustained. Movies, novels, songs were permeated by the theme of revolt: it was everywhere in people’s imagination. Two developments were responsible for making ordinary, apolitical Egyptians feel they could no longer carry on with their normal lives. The first was the dissolution of the social contract governing state–society relations since Nasser’s coup in the fifties. The contract involved a div0it exchange: the regime offered free education, employment in an expanding public sector, affordable healthcare, cheap housing and other forms of social protection, in return for obedience. You could have—or at any rate hope for—these benefits, so long as domestic or foreign policies were not questioned and political power was not contested. In other words, people understood that they were trading their political rights for social welfare. From the eighties onwards, this contract was eroded, but it was not until the new millennium that it was fully abrogated... continue reading.

New Left Review 68, March-April 2011

Middle East Change Observer No. 7/4-2011

Syria: a brutal crackdown

The Syrian regime has dramatically intensified its crackdown against the protesters in an attempt to quell the revolution by a stick and carrot strategy.

Concessions - First, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad abolished the emergency law and has dismissed two unpopular governors against whom there had been protests. He announced that there was no longer any reason for anyone to demonstrate, implying that further demonstrations would be dealt with harshly.

The newly-appointed cabinet held its first full-scale meeting and took a series of steps towards "reform". These included approving a draft decree replacing the emergency law it with a law "regulating the right to peaceful demonstration", "expediting" planned laws for political parties and the media, and a programme to create 10,000 new government jobs every year for young people. The lifting of emergency will make little or no difference: Many of the charges on which opponents of the regime are routinely imprisoned exist either within the Penal Code itself or as special laws or articles in the constitution.

Protests - Tens of thousands of Syrians came out again on “Great Friday” in numerous cities. Over 120 people were killed last weekend in April alone, bringing the number of deaths to 350. At least 3,000 troops, backed by tanks and heavy weapons entered Deraa, in the early hours of April 25. The army used tanks and indiscriminate shooting and proceeded to arrest hundreds around the country. There were numerous reports a mutiny in the units affiliated with 5th Division.

Information war - the Syrian government blames the attacks on Salafists groups, while opposition and media present the protests as civil uprising similar to those in other Arab countries. Also, opposition, Assad supporters and independents disagree about occurrence and magnitude of protests and accuse each other of propaganda.

Libya: little progress on the front, new NATO tactics

The front remained largely unchanged. After a period of indecision, the NATO coalition has begun striking Qaddafi forces forcefully again and started employing drones. It attacked Qaddafi’s headquarters in Tripoli. Despite the pledges of the Qaddafi government that its troops would cease attacking Misrata, they heavily bombarded the city both on Saturday and Sunday, killing at least 32 persons and wounding dozens. Two Western journalists were killed along with dozens of Libyans. After retreating into the port of Misrata last week, the rebels received humanitarian aid from the sea and had been able to push Qaddafi forced back and take much of the downtown area, including the central hospital, the last major bastion of the Qaddafi brigades. According to AFP that morale is extremely low among the Qaddafi brigades there, and that they might have surrendered some time ago if they had not been afraid of persecution by the Free Libya forces.

On Monday, the youth of the Duraibi quarter of Tripoli announced releasing flocks of doves to signal their support of the Free Libya government. Huge petrol queues have sprung up again in Tripoli and surrounding towns.

Yemen: closer to a solution

President Saleh agreed on April 24 to a formula by the Gulf Co-operation Council for him to transfer power to his vice-president within 30 days in exchange for immunity from prosecution. The nearly daily protests continue to demand he leave immediately.

Egypt: further changes in administration

Gas deal - The public prosecutor indicted six people in relation with a gas deal with Israel. Former Minister of Petroleum Sameh Fahmi and five others have been indicted for harming national interests, wasting public money and corruption. Since 2008 the deal has been a subject of public outcry and of a recent public campaign for the revision of the gas which was concluded in 2005. It fixed for 15 years a maximum price on gas. Global gas prices in the meantime went up. Yet, since the currently-ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces declared in its fifth communiqué that it maintains all international deals and treatise, the gas deal cannot simply be changed.

Protests - Egyptians protested on Wednesday 20 April against Mustafa al-Fiqi as Egypt's candidate at the Arab League.

The recently appointed governor of Qena has been suspended after a weak of violent mass protests and highway blockades in Qena. The protesters have said they do not object to Major Shehata Mikhail because of his Christian religion and instead accuse him of involvement in killing pro-democracy protesters during the 25 January revolution.

Progress: Tunisia, Jordan, Oman and Morocoo

Tunisia - PM Caid Essebsi announced that Officials of Tunisia's former ruling party in the past 10 years will be barred from standing in elections on July 24. Caid Essebsi said that to get round this obstacle, interim President Foued Mebazaa would draw up a "list by name" of people who directly collaborated with Ben Ali, particularly in his presidential cabinet and among his close advisors. Caid Essebsi also confirmed that the transitional government supported mandatory parity for men and women on the electoral lists for the vote in July.

Jordan - King Abdallah II has created a commission to suggest amendments to the Jordanian constitution.

Oman - Sultan Qaboos has acquiesced in protesters’ demands that he release nearly 300 dissidents arrested since the protests began.

Morocco  - protests continue to demand constitutional changes in third major protest since February. The government has given public sector workers a substantial pay raise ahead of the protests.

Expected events

Yemeni opposition leaders and dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh will meet in Riyadh on Monday to sign an agreement on a peaceful transfer of power. Egypt awaits advance in the interrogation of ex-President Mubarak. Syria is likely to step up the repression and possibly witness first desertions from the army.

Middle East Change Observer No. 6/4-2011

Significant headway in Egypt

Progress - Egypt moved towards a multi-party democracy by the High Court’s decision to ban the former ruling party NDP (1978-2011) and nationalise its assets on the ground of its monopolising the power. It termed recent changes a “glorious revolution” and acceded so to another substantial demand of the protesters, similarly to Tunisia’s month old ban of Ben Ali’s Rally for Constitutional Democracy.

Justice - In a similarly significant move ex-president Mubarak and his two sons were taken into custody: father was flown from Sharm el Sheikh into a military hospital, his two sons joined ex-PM Ahmed Nazif, ex-minister of interior Adli and the steel-tycoon Ahmed Ezz in the notorious Tora prison. The Mubaraks are to be detained for 15 days for questioning by the so called Illicit Gains Authority.

These decisions were taken after renewed massive protests on Tahrir square. Since two weeks protestors target the army’s strong hand tactics and army’s head, the Marshall Tantawi himself.

Gas - PM Essam Sharraf has directed the review of all gas contracts Egypt agreed to with all countries, including Jordan and Israel, in order to achieve higher returns for Egypt. Egypt supplies an estimated 40% of Israel's gas in what was under a controversial deal.

Stalemate inside Libya, moves outside

Libya fighting remains stalled around the cities of Ajdabiya and Misrata, still held by the rebels. Qaddafi was accused of using cluster bombs in Misrata.

In the Qatari capital, Doha Britain's foreign secretary William Hague and the Qatari prime PM Hamed bin Jassem chaired a first session of the international Libya "contact group" to explore ways ahead in the face of military impasse between the Gaddafi regime and the rebels. The Libya Contact Group for the first time forcefully called for Qaddafi to step down and recognized instead the Transitional National Council in Benghazi as legitimate. They affirmed that Qaddafi has lost the legitimacy to rule. As a result, Benghazi will likely be provided with cash, possibly including funds belonging to the Libyan government, frozen in NATO countries.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister David Cameron, and US President Barack Obama published a joint op-ed in three newspapers on April 15. They make it clear that the UN allies will not permit Muammar Qaddafi to remain in power.

Harsh repression and mild concessions in Syria

Protests - On April 15, in the biggest day of protests in Syria so far, tens of thousands of Syrians demonstrated against the Baathist regime in the Douma suburb of Damascus, but were prevented the police from reaching the center of the capital. In the southern city of Deraa, which has been the epicenter of Syrian unrest, 20,000 are said to have rallied against the government. Crowds also chanted in the streets against the government in Latakia, Homs, Banias and Jassan, as well as in the Kurdish areas. There were few casualties on Friday in Syria, which AP suggests may have reflected a regime strategy to minimize deaths of protesters.

Violence - Syrian soldiers have been shot by security forces after refusing to fire on protesters. Witnesses told al-Jazeera and the BBC that some soldiers had refused to shoot after the army moved into Banias in the wake of intense protests on Friday.

Assad’s active reaction to protests - Bashar Assad held a second televised speech on April 17 since the beginning to the protests. It was less arrogant, similarly adamant to stay out the crisis without substantial reforms, yet acknowledging the deep gap between the people and the government.

The speech followed a series of concessions clearly intended to placate two distinct and politically crucial groups – the Islamists and the Kurds. Pres. Assad fulfilled a decades-old demand by granting citizenship to thousands among Syria's long-ostracized Kurds, fired local officials, released some detainees, formed a new government and allowed Islamists to form a party and start a television station. He further promised to lift the nation's decades-old emergency law this week, even as he announced a series of strong counter-terrorism laws. Pr. Assad has also met with religious and tribal leaders from Daraa and Banyas and met with relatives of those killed in the Damascus suburb of Douma.

Developments in Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain

Financial Support for Tunisia - The World Bank is working with Tunisia on $500 million in budget support, which could leverage an additional $700 million from other donors. The European Union itself will provide up to €140 million in extra aid to Tunisia over the next three years, José Manuel Barroso, announced on April 12.  Barroso made clear that Tunisia's interim government has to clamp down on illegal migration. More than 20,000 Tunisian migrants have arrived in Italy since the ousting three months ago of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

Stalemate in Yemen - Hundreds of thousands of Yemenis demonstrated throughout the country, in Sanaa, Taizz, Hudeida and Ibb while the pro-government protest was smaller and only comes out for a short period every Friday afternoon. Efforts to negotiate a transfer of power in Yemen have floundered on the question of the sort of president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Arab Gulf states, who have been trying to mediate, want him to be granted immunity from prosecution in return for leaving office but the Yemeni opposition refused to let him go without a trial.

Thousands of Yemeni women demonstrated against Saleh on Saturday in Sanaa and Taizz, saying “We will not be silent!” They were protesting his complaint on Friday that there was gender mixing in the public rallies, which he said was contrary to Muslim culture, and his call for them to remain home.

The Bahrain government has backed off its plan to dissolve the Wifaq Party and one other. Wifaq is the largest Shiite party in the small Arab sheikhdom, representing the some 60% of the citizen population that is Shiite.

Protests – In Iraq, demonstrators demanded the resignation of Prime Minister al-Maliki in Baghdad. In Mosul protests demanded the immediate withdrawal of US troops and the release of political prisoners. In Amman, Jordan, 1000 or so protesters gathered downtown Friday to demand the resignation of the prime minister and greater democratic freedoms. In Saudi Arabia about a thousand protesters rallied in the eastern Saudi city of Qatif against crackdown on Shiites in Bahrain which Saudia Arabia helped.

                 

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“Our duty and our mandate under UN Security Council Resolution 1973 is to protect civilians, and we are doing that. It is not to remove Gaddafi by force. But it is impossible to imagine a future for Libya with Gaddafi in power... It is unthinkable that someone who has tried to massacre his own people can play a part in their future government.” PM Cameron, pres. Obama and pres. Sarkozy and in a common op-ed

Middle East Change Observer No. 5

Libya war
While fighting between the rebels and Qadhafi militias appeared as a stalemate around the towns of Brega and Ajdabiya, two peace plan initiatives were on the way. The Turkish PM worked out a plan with Libyan minister of foreign affairs and sent the proposal over to Tripolis. The African Union (AU) peace mission including three presidents was invited to Tripoli by colonel Qadhafi, worked out a plan that cl Qadhafi accepted and arrived to Benghazi later to receive a hostile welcome from protestors. The difference between the two plans is that the UA does not require the regime forces to retire from besieged cities as a condition of ceasefire. It is therefore likely to be rejected by Benghazi.

Syria

Concessions - Pres. Assad sought to quell unrest by offering Syrian nationality to the estimated 200,000 Kurds formerly classified by the government as stateless persons and by announcing the closing down of Syria’s first and only casino, which had enraged Islamists. Further, schoolteachers who had been dismissed last year for wearing the niqab, a type of face veil, would be allowed back to work. This decision appeared to be the most immediately significant result of a meeting Tuesday between Mr. Assad and a popular Islamist leader, Said Ramadan al-Bouti. Acc. to Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian writer, about 1,200 women would be affected by the niqab decision. Other concessions offered at the meeting, Mr. Abdel Nour said, included permission to create an Islamist satellite channel and to form an Islamist political party. But the president has failed to put an end to emergency law or release political prisoners – two of the protesters' demands.

Repression - More than 10,000 protesters took to the streets of several cities, including the capital, Damascus, on Friday, April 8. Three dozens were killed in Dera’a, Douma. The protests were followed by more protests and clashes during the funerals. The government has sealed of the port city of Banias where four were killed. There have been reports of violent pro-regime militias, the so called shabiha. Syrian security forces have reportedly used live bullets against anti-government protesters at Damascus University's science faculty.

Dissent - An editor at the state-run newspaper Tishreen, Samira Masalma, was sacked after she criticised the shootings on al-Jazeera television.

Protests

In Yemen, more than 100,000 people converged on the capital, Sanaa, for rival demonstrations on Friday. Scores were killed in Taizz. The president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, appeared accept the offer from the regional Gulf Cooperation Council to mediate the terms of his departure but it has been rejected by the opposition because it would give him immunity from prosecution.

A man set himself on fire in Amman, Jordan, emulating the action of the Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi, whose self-immolation helped spark the Arab Spring.

In Iraq, masses converged from the south and from Diyala province in the east on Baghdad, heeding the call of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr for a million-person demonstration to mark what the Sadrists and many Sunnis see as 8 years of American military occupation

Egypt
Protests – On April 8 some 100,000 protesters gathered in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo during “Friday of purification”, demanding that deposed president Hosni Mubarak be put on trial for corruption. A group of some 4,000 protesters still filled the square late Friday night, and the protesters were joined by a group of around 15-20 army Officers in defiance of an official order banning army personnel from participating. The move increased tensions in the square. On the morning of April 9 the army violently cleared the square with tear gas and fierce gun firing, mostly into the air. At least one person was killed.

Concession – The army’s policy of repression-concession cycle continues. On April 10, the prosecutors summoned former President Hosni Mubarak and his sons for questioning and arrested former Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. Mubarak and his family are accused of abusing their political positions to ‎accumulate “illegal personal profits, illegal amassing of wealth, and the seizure of public funds.”

Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf has ordered the Ministerial Security Committee to release all civilians detained in Tahrir Square on Friday and Saturday .

Army - An Egyptian military court on Monday jailed a blogger for three years for criticising the armed forces. Maikel Nabil Sanad, a 25-year-old activist wrote that “the army supplied police forces with extra ammunition to shoot protesters on Jan. 28,” adding that “the military later put protesters in Tahrir Square under siege and attempted to forcibly evacuate the demonstrations more than once.”

Egypt has nominated a top member of the former ruling party to be the new head of the Arab League Mustafa el-Fiqqi.

Islamists - Members of the Ansar al-Sunna Association - known in Egypt for its Salafi orientation - declared on Tuesday they will join the upcoming parliamentary race. Salafis recently gained national headlines following the destruction of several Sufi shrines near Egyptian northern cities including Alexandria, a Salafist stronghold, and Qalubiya. The Muslim Brotherhood condemned the attacks as any act endangering the unity of Muslims and destroying public propriety would contradict the spirit of the January 25 revolution.

Expected events

In Libya the two cease-fire plans are going to be discussed while the military situation appears as a stalemate. Cl Qadhafi is likely to accept the UA plan, while the transitional council on Benghazi might consider the Turkish one. The mediation of GCC will continue in Yemen. Syria entered a spiral of repression that is likely to deepen.

Middle East Change Observer No. 4

Violent stalemate: Libya, Syria

In central Libya Qadhafi’s forces retook the oil port Ras Lanuf and fighting rages around Brega. The advances by Qadhafi’s forces were facilitated by bad weather that grounded NATO-led coalition forces. The rebels attempt to bring more professionalism into their fighting. According to al-Jazeera. the rebels receive training and equipment from Egypt. Meanwhile, the Libyan foreign minister Musa Kusa defected to the UK, further splitting Qadhafi’s elite. 

Libyan opposition seeks a political solution to the stalemate on ground. It set terms of ceasefire, Qadhafi rejected them. The opposiution stroke a deal on oil export with Qatar.

Syria organised mass support demonstrations in larger cities and the government resigned. After president Asad’s defiant speech on March 30, protests continued on Friday, although in smaller numbers and under heavy police presence. Dozens were arrested and dozens were killed by police and plain cloth militia in Dera’a, Homs and in Douma in Damascus. In Latakia crowds were prevented to set a protest camp and in the North Kurds have joined protets. On April 3rd, the president named a new PM, Adel Safar, the former minister of agriculture.

Egypt

Transition rules – on March 30, the Supreme Military Council released a revised a constitutional decree that will act as a temporary constitution, replacing the suspended 1971 one until a new constitution is drafted. Among other things, it reduces the authorities of the Shoura Council (senate) and it retained a Mubarak-era provision mandating that 50 percent of the parliament consist of workers and farmers.

Political change - Deputy Prime Minister Yehia al-Gamal held on March 30 what the government considered to be comprehensive "national dialogue" with 160 representatives of various political forces, intellectuals, public figures and youth of the 25 January revolution. 27 Egyptian human rights organizations on Thursday criticized the government for excluding certain political forces from the so-called "national dialogue" it is holding, among those excluded were Wafd, Tagammu, Nasserist and Ghad parties, as well as representatives of human rights and civil society organizations, from the initiative.

The Egyptian military has fired three top officials from the country’s state-run television and radio institutions. the government also sacked several state newspaper editors and officials.

Renewed protests – As a sign of a return of crowds after the referendum, 4000 have demonstrated on a “Save the Revolution” Friday on Tahrir sq. and more groups in other cities, largely against the military’s lack of action against former regime figures and structures. After being hailed as the country’s saviours, heavy military hand in breaking up demonstrations and credible allegations of torturing arrested protesters have lowered the army’s credibility. 

At least 5,000 people have been arrested and tried in military courts since Mubarak dismissed his government and sent the armed forces into the streets Jan. 28., acc. to Mona Seif from the Hisham Mubarak Law Center. They face expeditionary military tribunals instead of civilians ones.

Religious politics – Islamists did not appear in the protests, despite the pleas of their younger members. The rift within MB widened, as Ibrahim al-Zaafarani, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Shura Council, and Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, one of the Brotherhood's iconic leaders, have both officially resigned from the group. Al-Zaafarani said that Brotherhood Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie's statement that members may not join parties other than the group’s planned Freedom and Justice Party was one reason behind his resignation.

Supreme Council for Sufi Orders organised a protest on March 29 to denounce the demolition of the estimated 16 shrines and historic Sufi mosques were that targeted by members of the Salafi movement acc. to, Sheikh Gaber Kasem al-Kholy, the highest Sufi Sheikh in Alexandria. The protest was joined by a number of leaders of the Shia community in Egypt. 

The Salafist organisation Gama’at al-islamiyya is headed by repented extremists who are set to compete for votes; so is the popular television preacher Amr Khaled.

Palestine – Protesters met in Cairo last week to demonstrate against the sell of Egyptian oil and gas to Israel, following a ruling by Supreme Court that allowed such trade. According to the opponents of the ruling, Egypt might trade with Israel at prices lower than regional standards.

Chaotic normalcy – Football matches have resumed after weeks long interruption, only to kead to an incident, when angry Egyptian attacked the players of a Tunisian team. Epyptian PM apologised to Tunisia, as well as Egyptian public on facebook.

Protests 

Massive protests continue in Yemen. A coalition of opposition groups called for a transitional unity government under the current vice-president. 

In Tunisia demonstrators demanding further lifting of restrictions on hijab in public space after the government allowed hijab ID pictures. Over the past two months, the United Nations says that more than 10,000 Tunisians have arrived by boat on the Italian island of Lampedusa, a gateway to Europe 70 miles across the Mediterranean

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"The military council is inexplicably slow in responding to our demands,” said Mohammad el-Qassas, a leader of the youth wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and a member of the Jan. 25 coalition. “Protests and popular pressure must return, because they are only the real method of realizing the people’s demands.” (NYT)

Expected events

Fatah and Hamas will hold talks in Cairo, planning to overcome internal division and restore Palestinian national unity, in April. The Syrian PM will form a government and “study the possibility of lifting the martial law” and other ways to quell protests.