Middle East Change Observer No. 3

Libya war

The no fly zone over Libya has been installed and NATO has assumed the leading role of the operation. After a week of aerial shelling, paving their way, the rebels were able to retake Ajdbiya, after Qaddafi’s troops had lost contact with the HQ, and also the two major oil-export facilities, Brega and Ras Lanuf. The national committee in Benghazi resumed exporting small amounts of oil. Women demonstrations were held across Eastern Libya in support of the Tripoli women, who managed to burst into the Western press hotel and tell her story of rape and abuse, seemingly a part of tactic of Qaddafi’s soldiers. Qatari’s planes have joined the effort. President Obama has announced the US involvement will be limited, yet intent on regime change.

Major protests in Syria, Jordan, Yemen

The international community’s decision to back by force Libyan rebels seems to fuel wider protests.

Syria has now clearly entered the overall ME process. Many tens of thousand hade marched in Deraa on March 25, more were killed during the funeral march and government installations were burnt. Protests have spread from Deraa to mostly small cities, but also to Homs, Lattakia and Damascus. 20 were killed in southern Sanamayn and 12 died in Latakia, after police opened fire on protests and after a fire exchange between unidentified armed opposition and the police. Nationwide 61 are reported killed. Amid repression and fear of civil war, Syria has announced the lifting of emergency and the willingness to restore some civil liberties. Pro-regime demonstrations took place in large cities. Anti-regime demonstrations openly called for the “fall of the regime.” National unity demonstration in Latakia sought to diffuse sectarian tension.

In Yemen, tens of thousands marched on Friday’s 25 “day of departure”. The central government and security forced showed signs of retreating, especially to looting, to local separatists and Islamist groups. A weapon factory explosion was reported. Unruly negotiation with a coalition of students, tribe leaders, political and party defectors from the regime and even some of Salih’s tribe are going on about the terms of President Salih’s resignation. He said on March 27 he wanted to yield power to “safe hands”. His offer to step down at the end of the year and after elections, a previous opposition demand, was rejected by the protestors.

In Jordan ongoing protests have first turned violent as demonstration was attacked by pro-monarchy mob and police intervened.

Saudi Arabia will hold long delayed municipal elections, though without allowing women vote.

Egypt

Political change – After a referendum, in which 77% voters voted for constitution amendments, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces made further steps towards transition. It said it will hold parliamentary elections in September, apparently giving more time to emerging political forces to organize their political parties, and announced new law with reduced barriers for the forming of political parties, especially religious ones. The Armies postponement of election date appears be to a gesture to outweigh their success in the referendum, as well as the display of the mobilising force of Muslim Brothers, Salafists and ex-NPD. The presidential election was not given any date yet. The army announced on facebook to release a “temporary constitution”, combining the approved amendments, old text and guiding elements for the transition. 

Islamists - While the Islamist front showed its force, it also began to fracture. On March 26 young members of the Muslim Brotherhood held a news conference asking for a greater say for youth in the organization. On March 27 Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, a prominent member of the Brotherhood's executive Guidance Bureau, announced that he will form a more liberal party. So did Ibrahim Al Zafaarani, another senior Brotherhood leader, popular with the youth. Mohammed Badie, the Brotherhood's General Guide, and the spokesman Essam Erian, criticised the development and said that Brotherhood members would only be allowed to join the organization's official Freedom and Justice Party. In a positive gesture, the MB announced its acceptance of Copts and women running for presidency, an issue previously controversially debated among MB members, and its willingness to discuss the youth’s criticism.

Power – On March 23 the council endorsed a plan to outlaw all kinds of demonstrations and sit-ins. The army continues to detain and take new prisoners (estimated in the hundreds) from among the protestors. Some have apparently been tortured, others have been sentenced by military courts to multiyear sentences. Civic organisations concentrate on tracking these arrests and trials.

Symbolic change – a number of public interest lawsuits were filed against the deposed government of Hosni Mubarak, in many cases seeking to erase the Mubarak name from institutions, as his name is spontaneously being deleted from public urban installations.

Quote

“There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” said Elijah Zarwan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “It makes sense if you are the military — you want stability and people off the street. The Brotherhood is one address where you can go to get 100,000 people off the street.” (NYT)

Expected events

Qaddafi’s forces have started fleeing from central Libya towns, ahead of the advance of air-supported rebels. The next battle be that of Sirt, that could fall next week and then Misurata, which has been under heavy shelling from Qaddafi’s forces. Syrian president is to announce a strategy for reforms, while protests will continue. Egypt’s army is expected to spell out more rules for the transition period. Yemen might descend into deeper disintegration of the central power.

Some Islamic scholars on Islam and politics

The Egyptian Islamic scholar and former scholar at the Cairo Ibn Khaldoun Center, Ahmed Sobhi Mansour, argues in Mediaeval theocracies in a modern age in al-Ahram that modern secular liberal regimes are more Islamic than theocatic regres who do not render any service to Islam:

"Any classification of "Islamic states" is political and demagogic, not scientific. Such states have nothing to do with the true Islamic state created by the Prophet Mohamed, who laid its foundations as decreed by the Qur'an. Today's so-called Islamic states are not based on absolute freedom of faith and a delicate balance between a free market, social justice, human rights and true participatory democracy. The modern secular state in its present form, in fact, is a step on the way to the realisation of the true Islamic state."

"The movements that have striven to create Islamic states in Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen believe in the same mediaeval doctrines that run counter to the principles of the Qur'an and the practice of the Prophet."

"These mediaeval theocracies will not only destroy the future of their own people, thus rendering a great service to America, but will also destroy Islam. We must implement rigorous reform, based on human and citizens' rights. Our degree of success will determine our ability to create a true Islamic state, in which religion belongs to God and citizens have reason to hope and strive for equality."

Ahmed Subhy Mansour now lives in the USA. As he explains in the New York Times, Islamic reformers have long been persecuted in Egypt - by the Egyptian government through the mecanism of the state of exception

"To curry favor with this influential religious establishment, the Egyptian government has brutally cracked down on members of the Koranist movement, leading to the imprisonment and torture of over 20 members and the exile of many more. This unique collaboration between the government and Islamic traditionalists refutes current claims by the state that Egypt is secular and that it is working to fight extremism and terrorism."

"Many Americans do not realize that there is a war being waged in Egypt against Muslim reformers. These reformers call themselves "Koranists" because they focus solely on the Koran and advocate a modern interpretation of Islam that rejects Shariah law."

Gilbert Achcar  on religious politics in Egypt:

"The regime conceded a lot to them (Islamists) in the socio-cultural sphere, increasing  Islamic censorship in the cultural field being but one example. That was the easiest thing the regime could do to appease the Brotherhood. As a result, Egypt made huge steps backward from the secularisation that was consolidated under Gamal Abdul-Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s."

Ali Allawi, ex-minister in post-Saddam Iraq and an Islamic thinker's criticism od Muslim religious politics and renewal of Islamic civilisation:
For a long time, the two worlds of Islam, the outer world of political and social action and the inner world of spiritual and moral realization, seemed entirely at odds with each other. One was angry at Islam’s subordination, insistent on recognition and power, on challenging the status quo; the other was serene, introspective, and immersed in the intangible. The canvas of the first was societies and nations; of the second, the self and the individual.
The essential unity of Islam was greatly diminished, if not quite yet destroyed. People could no longer move effortlessly between the two realms of Islam.


As I became more involved in politics, through writings, speeches, and then as an active member of the opposition to the Baathist regime in Iraq and subsequently as a cabinet minister in Iraq from 2003 to 2006, it became clear that few of the Muslims I encountered in the political arena were concerned with the spiritual aspects of Islam. In practice, Islamists behaved no differently, and often worse, than their secular counterparts. Abuse of power, squandering or outright theft of public resources, and corruption were all endemic to Islamistled governments.

In postSaddam Iraq, however, the full extent of the dissonance between Islamic political and religious life was laid bare. The murderous violence that was unleashed by radical Wahhabiinspired Islamists was sanctioned with laborious jurisprudential “justifications” from leading religious figures. 

Not once during my threeyear stint in the Iraqi government did I witness an Islamist party, Sunni or Shia, promote an Islamic cause that they had earlier propounded in their manifestoes. Gone were their proposals for an Islamic economy, an Islamic system of laws, or an Islamic state. For example, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Islamic Dawa Party, from which emerged consecutive prime ministers, Ibrahim Jaafari and Nuri Kamal alMaliki, showed no interest in pursuing any even mildly Islamic program once they were installed in office. The ruling parties were driven by an obsessive desire for material gain and a desire to keep in the good graces of Washington.

A sad and dispiriting spectacle, it was evidence that Muslims had become divorced from the wellsprings of Islamic ethics: the search for a felicitous life, a harmonious and just society, and moral virtue, which in turn is a pathway to the Unseen.

Muslims cannot simply partake of the technological fruits of modern civilization while simultaneously rejecting or questioning its premises. That makes them nothing more than inert consumers of the effort and creativity of others — even if they continue to smugly assert the superiority of their spiritual ways. That is the ultimate fallacy of the Islamists

Sandmonkey's advice after the referendum: Egyptian have to play politics now

March 20, 2011 By The Sandmonkey 

Dear Jan25 people,

So today the results of the referendum came out, and as expected the YES vote won. In case you didn’t expect it, well, there were 4 reasons why that happened:

1) How many Egyptians joined the protests at their peak? The day Mubarak left Office, it was estimated 10-20 million in the streets. What’s 20 million out of 85 million again? 25%? That means there are 65 million who never joined the protests from the beginning, and who probably miss the stability and security of the old regime. 75% that is used to say YES and there is no proof that they changed their mentality or behavior. Never-mind those amongst you who also voted yes for their reasons. I am personally surprised it wasn’t lower.

2) Cairo is not Egypt. This may seem obvious to others, but let me repeat that point again: CAIRO IS NOT EGYPT. Stop your  Cairo-is-the-center-of-the-universe chauvinism. 25 million live in Cairo, 60 million live elsewhere. And, let’s be honest, the NO vote people did not manage to get their message across to the people effectively. There was no real TV campaign, no real grassroots campaign and no actual debate. Some individual efforts here and there, but no real coordination. This has to change.

3) The Military & the MB & the Salafis & the NDP were pushing for a YES vote. The Military, as always, just wanted to get out of this mess as quickly as possible, and the YES vote meant just that for them without having to face any real headaches. The rest knew that a YES vote gives them the best chances to win the Parliament and thus re-write the new constitution, and they had the money and the organization and tools to push for it. You didn’t.

4) You no longer represent the people. You really don’t, at least when it comes to their concerns. Your concerns and their concerns are not the same anymore. You care about the revolution, & the arrest of NDP figures & getting the country on the right track. They care about economic security, the return of stability and normalcy the fastest way possible. They only have the military now as the organized force running the country & providing some security, and you are pointing out-correctly, mind you- that the military is detaining your friends and colleagues and torturing them and violating their rights to protests, and you want them to stand up against the military, the only force in the country in their perspective that is keeping Egypt from descending into total chaos. Yeah, that will win them over.

Mind you, this is not totally your fault. There are some things you are just not paying attention to, besides that you have been losing the people steadily. The First of which are the original demands. Remember those? Remember all the millions that went down for the minimum wage and you completely swept this under the rug to engage in a battle with State Security and the military? How many of the original demands have been met so far? Why is this not a bigger issue?

You are also not noticing that the Military doesn’t like you very much, and really, why would it? The Military likes stability, and we started a revolution which brought down a regime that put them first of everyone in the country and instead managed to get them to not only abandon their stable life-style under Mubarak’s rule but to start working harder than they ever had in years. You think they care about you or your demands? You don’t think that they won’t go after every single one of us when the time comes? This is not paranoia..this is simple logic. A force that can bring down a regime can take down the next one or even bring down the military structure itself; why allow that force to continue to exist or have popular support if you can take that away? In case you haven’t noticed, the military only listens when we manage to amass lots of people, and could care less when we only manage to get a couple of thousands. They don’t like you or your ideas, and they cave in when they do in order to maintain stability & their image as the public’s saviors. And you know all those times you keep mentioning that the Military is part of the old regime? Well, they are noticing it, and they don’t like that either. Why wouldn’t they attack you, allow propaganda against you, tell people that you are immoral, armed and/or on drugs, arrest you, beat you or torture you? What’s in it for them if you succeed?

How is any of this a surprise to you?

So, now what? Well, now is the hard part. This is the part where we stop playing revolution, and start playing politics for the sake of the country. This means caring more about perception and public support over righteous and legitimate demands. Do you know what that means? Well, if you do, but think that the revolution must continue on the street, well, congratulations, you are the reason why we are losing. If you don’t, well, please relax and keep an open mind, cause this is about to get really uncomfortable.

1) You have to get over the referendum results now, & see it as the gift it is: Oh yes, we lost, and it’s great news. Why? Well, because first of all, we managed to find out how many people are really with us, and which areas or locations we need to focus on (All of Egypt..Imagine?) and the percentages from those areas. We now have actual statistics, people. We know each district by vote. We know how many people we have in every voting district. We have a nation-wide base. Sure, 20%, is small, but it’s not insignificant, and you can totally build on it. And now you also know what tactics the MB and the Salafists use to mobilize the vote. We now know how they intend to play this, and this gives us an incredible advantage, cause we still didn’t play yet. You wanna start? Congratulate them on the results of the referendum. Call everyone you know who voted yes and enthusiastically congratulate them. Offer to host referendum parties if you can even. Don’t lose them even if you disagree with them. The wall you build now over this could exist come election time, which is when you will really need every vote. In case you didn’t notice, this was just a test-run.

2) You have to focus on the people & their issues, and push yours aside for now: Yes, you will have to address the economy. Yes, you will have to offer constructive solutions to the Police problem that isn;t simply “clean them up”. Yes, you will have to lay off the military criticism and, as horrible and hard as this might be, to put the issue of those who are detained, jailed, tortured or beaten by the military on the back-burner for now. Yes, I know that they are our brothers and sisters, but I also know that this is how they are distracting you. They are making you focus on small battles instead of focusing on the war. How many of us were tried or arrested? 50? 100? 10,000? We are talking about  the hearts and minds of about 85 million, and you are not doing shit to win them. Win the public, and all of your friends will be released immediately. Continue to lose the public and you will eventually join them. Simple, really!

3) Offer solutions that appeal to the public and get you support: I know, I know. You would think demanding accountability and the end of corruption would get you all the public support you ever needed, but, nah. They spread lies about you while you are running around trying to find your jailed friends and not responding or engaging back, and whatever goodwill you got for the revolution, well, it’s EGYPT’s revolution now. Everyone has the “January 25″ stickers on their car, which means that your achievement is now their achievement, and thus you get no credit. Ok, start earning credit again. START SELLING THE MINIMUM WAGE for example. In a country where 40% live under 2 $ a day, how is it possible not to get support for a proposal that would guarantee every egyptian 1200 EGP a month, especially in these economically turbulent times? You wanna demonstrate? Demonstrate for the Minimum wage, and many egyptians will join you, thus showing you have public support again. If the Military Council says yes to the minimum wage, Good, you not only gave people freedom, but also got them extra money in their pockets every month, which they LOVE, and as an added bonus you obliterated the myth that you don’t care about the economic hardships of regular Egyptians. That can’t suck. If they refuse, well, that’s good too. It will show that the military doesn’t care for the economic hardship of the poor, while you do , which makes you with the people again. And while they are there all dissapointed at the not-so-benevolent  supreme council, you start letting the people know what else they have been up to. You don’t need to lie to manipulate and sway public sentiment to your side, you just got to pick your timing.

4) Start organizing yourselves into an offline grassroots movement, Zenga Zenga style: This one might seem self-evident, but how to do it is the tricky part.

• First of all, find your people all over Egypt, and start registering them and training them. Start with the Polling data alongside those you know through life, facebook or Twitter. You will find them
• Secondly, organize yourselves into different units: The Internet-Unit (to lead efforts on reaching out and organizing the base on the net), the door-to-door Unit ( Go to every neighborhood, knock on 10 apartments and talk to people), the Phone Unit ( Use telemarketing techniques: call people and talk to them about the revolution. Have a training for the phone unit and conversation scenarios. Reach everyone again), the local Media Unit (those are your Intelligence and propaganda arms. They keep you abreast of the news of the areas they are in, let you know who are the people to watch out for and which are the ones to support and they are responsible for catering the media message to the needs of the locals) and the election observers unit (self-explanatory really). The more organized your people are, and the more trained they are in your talking points and counter-arguments, the easier it is for them to sell their ideas to the people.
• Thirdly, Create the coalition of new parties in order to bring in all those new ragtag parties together and make them a cohesive block that could stand a chance in the parliamentary elections by having one party’s members vote for other Parties’ candidates in precincts that they are not running their own candidates in, and they will do the same in return. Every vote counts.
• Last but not least, FUNDRAISE ALL THE TIME. We need the money. The NDP has all the money they stole from the country and the MB has all the money they get from Saudi & Qatar, so we need to get our own. Hit up for donations everyone you know in Egypt  who isn’t interested returning the corrupt to power or having this country turn into a theocracy. Contact your relatives and your friends abroad. Create Festivals and events whose tickets will fund your operations. There is no campaign finance legislation in place, which the MB is totally abusing, and we can as well. Let’s do that until we have enough of a majority to place in a law in place that would make this entirely unpleasant situation we currently live in behind us.

5) Start reaching out to Imams and Priests now: I once suggested that we need to reach to Imams and Priests in order to get them on our side, and I was hissed at for wanting to mix Politics with Religion. Well, as much as I agree with that sentiment and truly wish we live in a country where people don’t vote based on religion, ehh..welcome to Egypt. We are religious people, and whether we like it or not, Imams and Priests are community leaders. We have to engage them, get them on our side and have them help us with the hearts and minds of their flock. An easy place to start are the individual churches and the Sufi festivals (Fun Fact of the Day: the Sufis are 16 million in Egypt. I KNOW!), get those two groups, and then focus on all the local imams that are in your area. If you manage to convince 1 Imam in every 5, you already caused them to lose a sizable part of their base. Try to convince 2 

6) Know thy enemy: We need to compile a data-base on all the NDP names we know in every district, and then research their history and public record in the parliament. We need to get the history of all the known MB MP’s in the egyptian parliament and find out what bullshit policies they were pursuing during their tenure there. We need to know how popular they are and how much dirt there is on them. We need to know who their financial backers are and what businesses they own. A lot of the info is already available online. Let’s compile it and learn from it. This will be useful later.

7) Prepare for the propaganda war: The other side has already started the Propaganda war over the refrendum, using lies and fear-mongering to get people to vote their way. I am not a fan of lying or fear-mongering, but I have no problem using the truth as a weapon to hammer my agenda home. Tell people the truth: Tell them of the MB’s record in the parliament- how they wanted to ban books and music videos and the net. Tell people what Hamas- the MB of Ghaza- did t the population the moment they seized power (No music, No shisha, no concerts, no free media, intimidation and fear). Start creating banners accusing them of being agents for wanting to sell the country’s soul to the Gulfies, and start asking loudly where their seemingly endless money comes from during this economic crisis. Play on nationalism and national Unity. Joined demonstrations of muslims and christians that congregate in front of the MB Supreme Council’s office, and do a sit in there until they vow to stop using sectarian tones and ads, and when they vow, throw it in their face every time they use a religious slogan. Go After the Salafis as well. If they call you infidels, you call them Taliban. Remind people when they used to throw acid on girls for showing some legs or on their face for not wearing a Niqab. Remind people of the days when they used to target them and kill them, or when they used to crash weddings for being Haram or burn video stores and christian jewelery stores. Keep repeating everywhere you go that Egypt will never be Afghanistan, and people will start repeating that every time they see a Salafi or an MB member trying to use religion to his advantage. Start putting them on the defensive. They are weaker than you think, and the ways to neutralize them are endless.

That’s all for now, but let me remind you of one last thing before you go: You are more powerful than you know. You brought down Mubarak and his regime. You changed this country, gave it a future, and there is no way in hell you will allow those who use people’s ignorance to hijack it. They aimed to scare you yesterday, and instead they pissed you off. They pissed off the smartest, most fearless and most capable group of egyptians this nation ever gave birth to, thinking that you will see beards and yelling and you will run away screaming. They thought wrong. They miscalculated. They fucked up. And they will find that out soon enough. We gave them our hand in friendship, we gave them the benefit of the doubt and we wanted them equal partners in the building of this country’s future, while they were busy plotting against us with the NDP of all people. Well, moral clarity time: The NDP and the Islamists are two faces to the same coin, and neither can be allowed to control this country ever again. It’s time to quit being distracted, and start organizing and engaging people NOW. War has been declared on all of us, and we will be damned if we lose now. Just like the NDP, we will fight them until we can’t.

And in case you are wondering: We will win

Middle East Change Observer No. 2

Libya war

As Qadhafi armoured forces progressed towards the eastern half of the country, the UN SC voted a 1973 resolution, authorising air force to stop the killing of civilians, not through a no fly zone, but also by attacks on ground forces. China, Russia and Germany abstained. Qadhafi intensified the attacks on Misurata and south of Beghazi. On March 19 a military action was started by the US, UK, France and Italy that effectively stopped the tank attacks.  A heavy destruction of Libya air defence system was underway in the first two days of the operation, causing criticism by Amr Moussa.

Egypt

The constitutional referendum went ahead on March 19. The Egyptians approved the constitutional amendments with 77% (and high participation est. at 60%) thus ending a period of non-legality. Egyptians were divided and held a robust public debate about the amendments. The opposition, including M. Baradei, called for a no, while the Muslim Brotherhood, NPD and Salafists widely lobbied for a yes. The Islamists came out as allies of the army and NPD transition plan and showed a superior degree of popular mobilisation, over the “civic” revolution. The NDP was accused of bribing, irregularities were observed but not a systematic vote-rigging. The state media were not to hold an overt campaign, although they seemed to support a yes vote. M. Al-Baradei was prevented from voting at his polling station, due to crowds and thug violence.

Transformation – a fourth demand of the popular uprising (ouster of the president, dissolution of the parliament, change of the government) – The government disbanded the state security (amn a-dawla) on March 15, replacing it with a new institution charged with anti-terrorism (al-amn al-watani).

Minister Mansour el-Essawy said the system would play no further role in citizens' daily lives and apologized to the Egyptian people for the violations that took place on the part of some elements of the police apparatus in the past. The decision is seen as a gesture of change ahead of the referendum of March 19.

The former head of the organization has already been arrested in relation to the violent crackdown on January protests.  Two officers were accused of murdering Khalid Sayid, the online activist whose brutal death fuelled the popular movement.

Authorities –The Syrian ambassador to Cairo met with Hussein Tantawi, thus ending the boycott of Syria, effective since 2006 and related to the Arabs countries reluctance to support Hezbollah. The reconciliation with Syria is perhaps the first significant foreign relations step Egypt has taken under Tantawi.

Violence – thugs (baltagiyya) stories were reported, explaining how people got commanded and bribed into attacking the protests and indicating a direct responsibility of ex-PM A. Shafiq.

Advances

Morocco's King Mohammed VI promised sweeping constitutional reforms on television, including real powers for a popularly elected prime minister instead of a royal appointee, as well as a free judiciary. He also announced the formation of a commission to work on the constitutional revisions, with proposals to be made to him by June. A referendum will then be held. Opposition Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) leader Abdelilah Benkirane welcomed the speech saying that Mohammed had "reacted positively to the demands made by the parties and young people". Six people were killed in unrest that erupted after demonstrations on February 20 including five found burned to death in a bank set ablaze by people whom officials labelled vandals. On February 21 the king launched the Economic and Social Council, a body charged with advice to "pursue the realisation of structural reforms".

The Algerian parliament voted to lift the country’s state of emergency, a measure in place since 1992.

Oman's ruler Sultan Qaboos has decided to cede some legislative powers to a partially elected council, which previously only offered policy advice.

State violence in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria

In Bahrain 2000 Saudi troops and UAE police officers moved in, the Bahraini military cleared the protest centre at Manama’s Pearl sq. on March 16, killing 5 protesters and arresting opposition.

In Yemen security forces snipers and government supporters opened fire on demonstrators after prayers on March 17 as the largest protest so far gathered in the centre of the capital, Sana’a and killed 46, doubling the number of those killed in protests. A tourism minister as well as state news agency and press editors resigned in protest. A state of emergency was declared.

Two were killed in Dera’a in clashed with police, after protests broke out in four cities in Syria. 20 000 marched in the funeral on March 18, demanding the release of political prisoners, revolution.

Protests continue in Iraq almost every day against the corruption and incompetence of Maliki’s government,in Kurdistan protesters demand the departure of president Barzani.

Quotes

The Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that while the immediate objective of the intervention was to halt violence against civilians, the "final result of any negotiation would have to be the decision by Col. Gadhafi to leave."

Expected events

In Libya the ground war may continue especially in cities – Misurata and Benghazi – where air strikes are ineffective and dangerous and it remains to be seen whether and how the rebels can resist, whether Qadhafi consolidates his grip on West Libya and whether (and when) his own camp begins to crumble.

Egypt wakes to a new political reality – the restoration of legality will lead to first changes - founding of political parties and a start of a campaign.

In Yemen the anti-protest violence helped rally the opposition, more protests are to be expected.

Middle East Change Observer No. 1

March 14 

Egypt

Authorities – General Shahin, a member of Egypt's governing Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, said that parliamentary elections could be held in September, with presidential elections before the end of the year.

The Armed forces council has approved a new draft law to crack down on crimes such as intimidation, thuggery and disturbing the peace – criticised by the opposition as a means to control protests.

On the other hand, 38 youth taken prisoners during the protests on March 9 – among them the actor Aly Subhy – were released. Some 150 more are still under arrest and face military, not civilian, tribunals.

The Council set up a committee tasked with investigating the shooting of demonstrators during the 25 January revolution. It took testiminies in the Interior Ministry and will submit its report to Attorney-General Abdel Meguid Mahmoud shortly.

Violence – on March 8 a women’s demonstration for the International Women’s Day was forced to leave Tahrir by what was described as a concentrated effort of thugs.

A day later a dozen of people were killed by bullets in sectarian violence in south Cairo, when Cotps blocked a highway to demand the restoration of a nearby church burnt a March 4 in a local inter-religious incident. Police was passive during the deadly incident.

These incidents are regarded as attempts do rekindle sectarianism and bring about chaos by members of the suspended State Security. They were condemned by PM Sharaf, Essam Erian from MB, Amr Moussa. The new interior minister Mansour el-Eissawy is in charge with the restructuring of security apparatus. Symbolically, army engineers took first steps to reconstruct the burnt church.

Protests – in response to the sectarian violence and the resurgence of thugs (baltagiyya), who cleared Tahrir last week and are suspected of being on the payroll of “counterrevolution”, thousands have taken place in a demonstration of “national unity” on Tahrir.

Societal change – there are changes in many levels in state institutions. The state university unions on strike against the presidency n many universities since March 6 met in Cairo with the new minister of Education and agreed on renewed elections to the unions bodies. The state universities are no longer guarded by Ministry of Interior security forces.

An organisation of independent unions were established and met with Labour minister this weekend in a public discussion about the right to organise and protest.

Constitutional referendum – a vote about the constitution amendments announced on 26 February 2011 by the 10-member ad-hoc constitution committee is due to take place on Saturday March 19.

There is a marked controversy among the revolutionaries about the constitutional changes. These are criticised as too few – especially leaving the president with all his extensive rights (and strictly restricting the presidency candidate on the basis of citizenship, thus ruling out some opposition figures) and potentially object of abuse by the new president. The young revolutionaries, M. al-Baradei and Tagammu of the old opposition oppose the changes and call for a negative vote and a whole new constitution; the Muslim brotherhood endorses it. Due to the critical public discussion there is now uncertainty about whether the referendum would pass.

Elsewhere

Last week was marked by security forces backlash, not only in Libya. While incipient talks stalled or offerings of economic relief failed demonstrations Bahrain, Yemen, SA and Syria go on and meet with violence.

In Libya the initial gains by the rebels stalled as Qadhafi´s army restructured and attacked and after protracted urban fights and shelling retook the two oil centres of Zawiya and Ra’s Lanuf. Qadhafi’s military regained the upper hand. After some signs of negotiations and recognition of rebels groups the regime’s rethoric returned to the usual aggressive confrontation and feeds increasing fear of violent retribution, should further rebel held cities fall. After the embattled Brega the next is Ajdabiya, already heavily bombarded by Qadhafí’s aviation. It is the hometown of one of the first deserted ministers, the general Abdel Yunis, and his clan, which indicates that he might stall Qadhafi’s offensive.   

In Bahrain a demonstration was broken up on March 13. The large financial concessions the king has offered could not appease the protestors asking for political equality and participation. The government might take even tougher stance on protestors again. 

In Yemen four died demonstrations continue and meet toughest response so far as security forces tried to clear the protest square.

Demonstrations were also staged in Saudi Arabia and in Syria – in both countries police succeeded to impede large crowd gathering.

Mar11 Saudi police used guns to quell demonstrations

In Jordan March 8 600 journalists, MP’s and a minister demonstrated against censorship.

Quotes

Ahram: “Many critics and politicians agree that the counter-revolution is the reason behind all the brutal incidents taking place between Egyptian Copts and Muslims,” Amr Hamzawy, Carnegie Middle East Centre

MacClatchy:: "The regimes might withstand these pressures and remain, but they'll never be the same," said Mohammad al Qahtani, president of the Saudi Civil and Political Rights Association. "Now, the status quo can't be maintained anywhere in the Middle East."

Expected events

Libya’s leader Qadhafi’s forces head towards rebel’s strongholds and risks of bloodshed increase.             

In Egypt the referendum is supposed to be held on Saturday. There are signs that the military might postpone the vote.

Middle East Change Observer No. 0

REVOLUTIONS TIMELINE

Tunisia: the “Sidi Bouzid Revolt”

Dec 17 2010 – beginning of protests in Tunisia

December – further suicides; protests intensify and spread to the capital

Jan 6 – lawyers join the protests

Jan 14 – Tunisian president Zine el-Abidin flees Tunis; violence and looting; prisoners freed (perpetrators unknown)

Egypt

Jan 25 – first massive protest on Cairo’s Tahrir sq. followed by a two days police repression and civilian deaths

Jan 28 – police disappears from the streets, frees prisoners, looting

Jan 29 – Omar Suleiman appointed vice president

Jan 31 – pres. Mubarak presents new government

Feb 1 – Huge protests pres. Mubarak will not run for another term

Feb 2 – violence on Tahrir sq. by pro-regime supporters

Feb 4 – Friday of departure massive protests

Feb 5 – Christian mass on Tahrir sq.; NDP leadership resigns

Feb 8 – Wael Ghonim on Tahrir sq.

Feb 9 – strikes spread

Feb 10 – pres. Mubarak’s last unclear address

Feb 11 – Friday of departure – pres. Mubarak resigns

Libya

Feb 17 –Day of rage in Libya

Mar 3 – rebels pushed back an attack on air terminal

Mar 4 – Bengazi rebels form a 30-member provisional authority

Mar 5 – Qaddafi forces mount an attack around Tripoli

ONGOING PROTESTS

Yemen

Jan 27 –first major demonstration in Yemen

Feb 2 – pres. Saleh will not run for president in 2013

Feb 20 – Protests at Sana’a University

Feb 28 – Massive protests; Pres. Saleh offers to form a unity government; opposition rejects the offer and calls for him to step down

Mar 3 – Pres. Saleh rejects the opposition’s transition plan; massive protests

Mar 5 – resignation of minister Abdullah al-Ahmar

Elsewhere

Jan 17 – Protests in Mauritania

Jan 26 – Syria: a man burned himself in Hasaka

Jan 28 – Jordan: peaceful demonstrations for change

Feb 1 – Jordan: King nominates a new govt under an ex army general

Feb 4 – Jordan: king meets with the Muslim Brotherhood

Feb 5 – Syria: protests in Hasaka, arrests

Feb 12 – Algeria: Resumed protests in Algiers

Feb 14 – Iran: First protests in Tehran in a year

Feb 15 – Bahrain: protesters occupy the Pearl sq. in Manama; death by police shots

Feb 17 – Syria: a traffic incident turned into a demonstration in Damascus

Feb 19 – Bahrain: after firing at the protesters for several days, police retires

Feb 21 – Bahrain: massive demonstration

Feb 22 – Syria: protest disrupted at the Libyan embassy in Damascus; arrests

Feb 22 – Algeria: government announced the end the emergency law (in function since 1992)

Feb 26 – Bahrain: Govt reshuffle

Feb 27 – Oman: protests at a mall in Sohar port city, one dies in clashes with police

Mar 5 – Oman: Sultan Qaboos changes two ministers

STEPS TOWARDS DEMOCRATIC REFORMS

Tunisia

Jan 17 – New govt announced including opposition figures, under M. Ghannoushi, PM since 1999; protests resume

Jan 17 – The Gvt named the High Political Reform Commission charged to consult on dismantling oppressive laws

Jan 20 – ministers resigne from the ruling RCD party

Jan 27 – major RCD ministers design, retaining two old members and PM

Feb 2 – former interior minister arrested

Feb 3 – regional governors replaced

Feb 6 – activities of RCD suspended

Jan 31 – the banned moderate Islamist party’s leader Rashid al-Ghannoushi has returned from exile

Feb 26 – protests for the change of government leave 6 people dead

Feb 26 – Mohamed Ghannouchi, Tunisia’s PM since 1999, resignes; Beji Caid el Sebsi named the new PM

Feb 28 – the industry minister Afif Chelb resignes, later followed by the two remaining ministers from old govt

Mar 1 – legalisation of R. Ghannoushi’s Renaissance Party (an-Nahda)

Mar 3 – interim president Fouad Mebazaa announced elections for the Constitutional Assembly will take place July 24

Egypt

Feb 11 – The Supreme Council of Armed forces assumes power in breach of the constitution

Feb 13 – The Supreme Council suspends constitution, dissolves both chambers of parliament and promises elections within 6 months

Feb 16 – The Supreme council nominates a 10-member constitution committee to suggest const. changes

Feb 18 – Yusuf al-Qaradawi speaks on Tahrir

Feb 20 - The attorney general freezes the assets of the ex-pre. ex-pres. Mubarak’s family

Feb 26 – Partial amendments to the Eg. constitution unveiled

Mar 3 – PM Ahmad Shafiq resigns; SCAF nominates his deputy Essam Sharaf ; Abdullah Gül visited EG.

Mar 4 – Essam Sharaf speaks on Tahrir sq. Referendum about constitutional change will take place on March 19

Mar 5 – Trial with former interior minister al-Adly starts with corruption charges

Mar 5 – People break into state security building in a number of cities upon rumours that police are burning documents

March 6 – Eg. PM nominates a new cabinet with a new foreign, interior and justice ministers

CURRENT STATE OF CHANGE

Almost every Arab country has been affected – with various results.

Two (with Libya three) countries have seen the end of a decades long authoritarian regime.

Tunisia has so far gone the farthest in direction of reforms. It has a provisional government including opposition and civil society figures and none of the previous regime’s ministers. The long-term Prime Minister Ghannoushi has stepped down after prolonged protests against his continuation in office and after those protests had claimed deaths on Feb. 26. The former state-part RCD has been dissolved. Revolution is accepted as the official term for Tunisia’s changes.

The Tunisian government has announced elections to the constitutional assembly for July 24; general elections will take place later.

The country has witnessed a certain amount of looting, police desertion, dysfunction of provincial administration; and with steady, sometimes violent protests until the resignation of PM Ghannoushi.

In Egypt the resignation of pre. Mubarak on Feb 11 has been accompanied by a military coup. The High Council of Armed Forces has suspended the constitution, dissolved both chambers of parliament and nominated a 10-member constitution committee to amend a dozen of articles in order to enable presidential elections. These changes will be submitted to a referendum on March 19.

Few days after the resignation of Tunisia’s PM Egypt’S PM also resigned. Army council has nominated a former transport minister Essan Sharaf, who had taken part in the protests. PM Sharaf has dismissed the unpopular foreigń minister and nominated new foreign, justice and interior ministers.

Egypt is still recovering from three weeks of a virtual stop of most social and economic activity. Universities resumed, stock exchange is still closed.

Political and economic concessions

The president of Yemen will not run for another term in 2013 and started to negotiate possible government changes with opposition, backed by massive and prolonged protests. Seven parliamentarians resign over violence.

Bahrain’s King Hamad has changed government, released prisoners and promised economic concessions.

The King of Jordan has changed the government and talks with opposition.

Partial changes

Iraq’s PM Maliki will not run for a third term; made demands on his ministers to be effective;

The Sudan president, in power since a coup in 1989, will not seek another term in 2015.

The Omani absolute monarch has offered economic concessions and reshuffled government.

The King of Morocco has created an advisory council to study people’s demands and continue reforms.

Repression

Saudi Arabia has banned protests, arrested protest leaders and offered financial payment to the population.

Iran has seen first massive street protests since the failure of the Green movement to affect change. At least one died; opposition leaders are possibly under arrest.

Minor protests in Syria’s Kurdish region and in Damascus have been quelled.

Morocco has repelled protests in occupied Western Sahara.

FIRST CONCLUSIONS

Every MENA state has been affected in some way by the fall of two strongmen and the example of protests, yet in varying degrees.

Generally, authoritarian republics seem more prone to changes while monarchies resist changes with concessions. Other countries where demands of elections and opening of political space might succeed are: Algeria, Yemen, The occupied territories

Revolutions

The reforms have started by changed governments in preparation to elections. Protesters in both countries continue to demand more to insure an effective passage of power from the state, army, and economic structures of the old regime to a new

New Forces

The revolutions’ motor – youth groups and movements – remain active in both Egypt and Tunisia, yet they did not succeed to form a united structure. Nor has a popular leadership or a rallying figure emerged in either country.

Islamist Parties were the promptest to issue statements and demand official recognition. They act very prudently and declare the willingness to obey to the rules of liberal democracy. The an-Nahda party has been officially founded in Tunisia, al-Wasat in Egypt. Other Egyptian Islamic parties will seek recognition: the Muslims Brotherhood, the Salafists and even the Sufis.

The former state parties, Tunisia’s RCD and Egypt’s NDP, have been dissolved and suspended, respectively, after many cadres left. There is not yet a sign of their reconstitution under a younger leadership, although it is to be expected, especially in Egypt.

Unions have been vocal and effective during the protests and afterwards. They have a broad support because they uphold one of the main demands, salaries increase, and they face a change in leadership. The Unions have scored some minor increases and remain a strong mobilising force.

EXPECTED EVENTS

Libya’s leader Qaddafi mounted an attack on towns fallen to population or to rebels around Tripoli and eastwards. Rebels try to push towards Qaddafi’s city of Sirt. Next week will possibly decide the fate of popular uprising or cement Libya’s division or, in case of massive life loss, pressure EU and US to take action.

In Egypt the new government is expected to start putting Egypt back to normal and show if it can be in charge.

In Yemen indirect negotiations are underway between protesters and government; progress possible